Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.01-$.02 lower while spreads were mixed. Today was day 2 of the Goldman roll. Mch-26 remains rangebound between $4.15-$4.40. Lower FOB offers from Argentina are starting to cut into US exports. 2nd crop plantings in Mato Grosso Brazil have reached 28% vs. 26% YA. AgRural reports the 1st crop harvest has reached 15% vs. 10% the previous week, while 2nd crop plantings across the country have reached 22%, up from 12% LW. APK Inform has lowered their forecast for Ukraine exports 2 mmt to 23.5 mmt due to continued missile attacks by Russia. The USDA forecast is at 23 mmt. Corn O.I. plunged over 23k contracts on Friday. Export inspections at 52 mil. bu. were above expectations however below the 62 mil. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 1.336 bil. are up 47% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 12%. Noted buyers were Mexico – 18 mil., Japan – 7.5 mil. bu. And Colombia – 5.5 mil.
SOYBEANS
Prices were sharply mixed across the complex with beans ranging from up $.02 in new crop futures while old crop was down $.04. Meal was down $2-$6 while oil surged 125-135 points closing near session highs. Bean and meal spreads weakened while oil spreads have firmed. Mch-26 beans held within Friday’s range. Mch-26 oil closed just below its contract high at 56.97 from last July. Mch-26 meal is back below its 50/100 day MA’s. Spot board crush margins rebounded $.06 ½ to $1.68 bu. while bean oil PV surged to a fresh 6 month high at 48.8%. Bean oil rallied to fresh 6 month high on hopes for improved demand from biofuel and/or trade with India. The USDA reported a flash sale of 264k mt (9.7 mil. bu.) of soybeans to China for the 25/26 MY. Likely need to see additional Chinese buying to keep prices above $11 bu. An additional 8 mmt of sales to China would appear unlikely with Brazilian FOB offers more than $1 per bu. below the US. Better rains expected for EC Argentina this week should help improve crop prospects. Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest producing state is 40% harvested vs. only 28% YA. AgRural reports harvest across Brazil has reached 16% up from 10% LW. Safras & Mercado report only 34% of the 2025/26 soybean crop has been sold by Brazilian farmers, down from 42% YA and the 5 year Ave. of 45%. Combined YTD biodiesel and RD production thru Nov-25 at 4.278 bil. gallons is down 10% YOY. Policy uncertainty led to slowed production rates. Soybean oil usage slipped 7.6% to a 7 month low at 930 mil. lbs. Usage in the first 2 months of the 25/26 MY is off 20% vs. the USDA forecast of up 26%. Despite optimism over higher RVO’s and Z45 tax credits, delays will likely trigger another cut in the USDA usage for biofuels currently at 14.8 bil. lbs. Export inspections at 42 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and well above the 24 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 850 mil. are down 34% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 16%. China took 27.5 mil. while Egypt took 4 mil.
WHEAT
Prices were steady to $.03 lower across the 3 classes in 2 sided trade. Spreads were mixed in CGO and KC. CGO Mch-26 held near its 100 day MA at $5.30. KC Mch-26 still holding MA support near $5.26 ½. The MM short position in KC down to 9k contracts, the smallest in 15 months. APK Inform lowered Ukraine’s export forecast 2.2 mmt to 14.5 mmt vs. the USDA est. of 14 mmt. Export inspections at 21 mil. bu. were above expectations and above the 16 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA forecast. YTD inspections at 637 mil. bu. are up 18% from YA, vs. the USDA at up 9%. IKAR reports Russia’s export price for wheat ended LW at $231/mt, unchanged from the previous week.
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