ADMIS News
COCOA
March Cocoa was lower early Tuesday and was very close to taking out the contract low an 3931 from January 30, as the market digests reports of unsold beans in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals for the week ending February 8 totaled 32,000 metric tons, down from 33,000 the previous week and on par with a year ago. Cumulative arrivals for 2025/26 have reached 1.263 million tons, down from 1.322 million at this point last year and below the five-year average of 1.390 million. Ivory Coast traders told Reuters on Monday that the marketing of the main crop, which lasts until March, was still modest and that farmers had many unpaid bags of beans in their stocks. There were worries that bean quality was deteriorating as the storage conditions were not adequate. There were also reports of some farmers being reluctant to harvest ripe pods that were on trees, fearing they would not get paid for them. Farmers said the rains were below-average last week, but the soil was moist enough to support the development of the April-to-September mid-crop. They added that the moisture was helping cocoa trees produce more flowers and to turn them into small pods. Good rains expected in the coming weeks would boost the crop and help produce good-quality beans. The seasonal Harmattan wind that usually sweeps in from the Sahara desert between December and March was mild last week. World Weather Inc says additional showers during the next week may not bring enough rain to stimulate much new flowering, but there should be enough rain to support pollination.
COFFEE
March Coffee was trading both sides of unchanged early Tuesday after falling to its lowest level since August 11 on Monday. The pressure on the market off growing expectations for a strong Brazilian crop this year were tempered somewhat by a drop in Colombian output. Colombia’s National Federation of Coffee Growers on Friday put January production fell at 893,000 bags in January, down from the 1.35 million in January 2025 and the lowest for any January since 2023. Production fell 8% in the 12 months through January to 13.2 million bags versus 14.4 million in the prior-year period. World Weather Inc. says it expects abundant rain in Brazil coffee areas of Sul de Minas, Cerrado Mineiro and southern Zona da Mata through the first half of this week. Less frequent and less significant rain is predicted for the second half and into early next week, but conditions will remain very good. Temperatures should be seasonable into next week with a slight bout of warming this weekend and early next week.
SUGAR
March Sugar was slightly lower early Tuesday following a bounce from a three month low on Friday. The market has so far managed to hold above the November 6 contract low at 14.04. The trade expects another global surplus in 2026/27, but not nearly as large as the one in 2025/26. The drop in sugar prices to their lowest level in five years is discouraging investment in cane and beet production. EU is expected to lower its beet plantings this summer. Brazil may focus more on ethanol and other crops besides cane. El Nino could emerge in time to reduce monsoon rainfall this summer and thus lower production prospects for India and Thailand. Brazil’s sugar refiner Raizen has reported begun a preliminary and exploratory assessment of economic and financial alternatives as it tries to turn its fortunes around.
COTTON
March Cotton was higher early Tuesday, as once again, a move to a new contract low appears to attracted buyers. The trade may also be wary of pressing the market lower ahead of today USDA supply/demand report. For the report, a Bloomberg poll has an average trade expectation for US 2025/26 cotton production at 13.90 million bales (range 13.80-14.00), which would be slightly lower than the 13.92 million in the January update. Exports are expected at around 12.17 million bales (range 12.00-12.30), versus 12.20 million in January, and ending stocks are expected around 4.21 million bales (range 4.10-4.40) versus 4.20 million in January. World production is expected around 119.52 million bales (119.00-121.00) versus 119.43 million in the January report, and world ending stocks are expected at 74.56 million (73.90-75.50) versus 74.48 million in January.
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