ADMIS News
SUGAR
May Sugar broke below the November contract low early Wednesday, embarking on a new leg down in a two-year-plus bear market. The nearby contracts has fallen to its lowest level since October 2020, and there is a gap on the monthly chart at 13.31-13.07 that offers a new target. The global surplus for the 2025/26 season is keeping the market on the defensive. Early projections call for a much smaller surplus in 2026/27, but it is still a surplus. The USDA WASDE report on Tuesday put US 2025/26 production at 9.410 million short tons, up from 9.381 million forecast in January and a new record. The higher production lowers import needs. The CFO of Brazilian company Sao Martinho said they expect sugar prices to rebound throughout the 2026/27 season, noting that supply is expected to tighten as mills allocate more sugarcane to ethanol. That trend has shown up in the monthly UNICA reports, although it happened too late in the season to have much effect on their overall 2025/26 production. The new crop year starts in April.
COCOA
May Cocoa edged lower early Wednesday to a new contract low. Ghana and Ivory Coast are both facing “crises” with ample supplies being harvested but not finding buyers. Ghana is holding an emergency cabinet meeting today to discuss the crisis. In the meantime, the weather in West Africa points to strong production. World Weather Inc. said expects isolated to scattered showers most days during the next week from Ivory Coast to southern Benin as well as in Cameroon. Rain will be poorly distributed at times and often light with additional flowering likely be limited from Ivory Coast to southern Benin, but enough rain should fall to support pollination in areas that may have or will soon flower.
COFFEE
May Coffee was near unchanged on Wednesday and was in the lower portion of Tuesday’s range. The market moving tested the top end of a consolidation range from July bound by 288.65 and 261.80 this week and has found some support at that level. Coffee industry advisor Pine Agronegocios forecasted Brazil’s 2026 coffee crop at 67.7 million, up from 62.1 million in 2025 but short of the record 69.9 million from 2020. They blamed less than ideal weather conditions last year. Arabica production was pegged at 44.2 million bags versus 37.5 million in 2025, and robusta at 23.5 million bags versus 24.5 million bags in 2025. These numbers are at the lower end of the recent range of expectations, but not as low as Conab, which put total production at 66.19 million bags and arabica at 44.09 million.
COTTON
May Cotton was near unchanged early Wednesday following a rally on Tuesday that faded once the USDA supply demand report was released. The report came in at the bearish end of expectations, particularly for US 2025/26 ending stocks, but it was nothing too surprising. Production was left unchanged, but exports were lowered by 200,000 bales, resulting in a 200,000-bale increase in ending stocks, which was right at the upper end of the trade expectations. The drop in exports is in keeping with the slow pace of export sales. The stocks/use ratio is the highest since 2019/20. Next up is the weekly Export Sales report on Thursday, and traders will be watching to see if the 2025/26 sales number can exceed last week’s 249,836 bales. Then comes the USDA Outlook Forum next Thursday and Friday that will provide forecasts for cotton plantings.
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