ADMIS News
COFFEE
May Coffee was higher early Thursday and managed to move above the 9-day moving average for the first time in two weeks. Some forecasts for Brazil’s 2026 coffee production are less bearish than others. Coffee industry advisor Pine Agronegocios this week put Brazil’s 2026 crop at 67.7 million, up from 62.1 million in 2025 but short of the record 69.9 million from 2020. They blamed less than ideal weather conditions last year. Arabica production was pegged at 44.2 million bags versus 37.5 million in 2025, and robusta at 23.5 million bags versus 24.5 million bags in 2025. These numbers are at the lower end of the recent range of expectations, but not as low as Conab, which put total production at 66.19 million bags and arabica at 44.09 million. Recent strength in the Brazilian real may also be lowering the incentive for Brazilian producers to sell for export. The March real reached a new contract high on Wednesday, and the nearby contract was approaching the 21-month high from late January. The strong US jobs report on Wednesday may have also boosted US demand ideas.
SUGAR
May Sugar fell to new contract lows early Thursday , as the market extended the selloff that began when it fell below the November lows last week. Traders are focusing on the large surplus expected for 2025/26 and are looking past expectations for a lower surplus in 2026/27. The fact that a surplus is still expected next year leaves little for the bulls to cling to. Index rolling to the May contract was also cited as a reason for the selling. Sugar prices having fallen to their lowest level in more than five years is expected to lower investment in cane and beet production and also increase the incentive to crush cane for ethanol. Ethanol stocks in Brazil’s center-south totaled 5.81 billion liters as of January 15, down 20.7% from a year earlier, according to the data from the agriculture ministry. Safras & Mercado analyst Mauricio Muruci said in an interview that ethanol prices running 30% to 40% higher than sugar justifies a higher ethanol allocation. The group expects mills to direct 53% of sugarcane to ethanol in the coming season, reversing trends seen during the 2025-2026 season.
COCOA
May Cocoa made another move to a new contract low early Thursday, as the market continued to feel the pressure from slow sales and a build-up of newly harvested supplies in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Both nations raised their official farmgate prices this year, and buyers have been reluctant to pay at those levels. Ghana was scheduled to hold an emergency government meeting on Wednesday on the crisis. West African weather has had a mild dry season, which has been good for crops, and the region is starting to switch over to the rainy season. World Weather Inc. expects isolated to scattered showers in Ivory coast and Ghana into early next week. Rain will be poorly distributed at times and often light with flowering likely be slow to expand, but enough rain should fall to support pollination in areas that may have or will soon flower. ICE warehouse stocks increased by 34,523 bags on Wednesday to 1,871,034 their highest since October 16. Stocks have increased by 77,487 bags over the past five sessions. Ecuador and Peru have both seen significant increases this week. Colombia and Venezuelan origin supply is also increasing.
COTTON
May Cotton was higher early Thursday and was approaching Tuesday’s high. The market managed to close above the 9-day moving average for the first time since mid-January on Wednesday, which may inspire some short covering. Wednesday’s USDA report was slightly bearish as it showed a 200,000 bale decrease in US exports for 2025/26, but it was not a big surprise given the slow pace of sales this season. For today’s Export Sales report, traders will be watching to see if the 2025/26 sales number can exceed last week’s 249,836 bales. World Weather. Inc. says rain expected in Queensland over the coming week should improve some cotton, but for some areas it is coming a bit late in the season, as early maturing cotton will be harvested in late March. However, most of the crop should see greater boll development and improved fiber quality because of the rain.
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