Global Ag News For Feb 18.2026

TOP HEADLINES

NOPA January US soy crush tops most estimates at 221.564 mln bu

The U.S. soybean crush in January reached its highest level on record for the first month of the year, while soyoil stocks ballooned to their largest level since April 2023, according to monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data issued on Tuesday.

NOPA members, which account for around 99% of all soybeans processed in the United States, processed 221.564 million bushels of soybeans last month, up 10.6% from 200.383 million bushels a year earlier. January’s total was down 1.5% from the 224.991 million bushels crushed in December 2025 as harsh weather disrupted some operations last month, analysts said.

Expanded U.S. crush capacity swelled processing rates in recent years after some crushers built new plants and others expanded existing facilities to meet rising demand for vegetable oil from biofuels makers. Plants also ramped up processing rates after a bumper U.S. harvest last fall.

The crush last month had been expected at 218.52 million bushels, according to the average of estimates from 10 analysts surveyed by Reuters. Their estimates ranged from 211.17 million to 226.00 million bushels, with a median of 219.50 million bushels.

Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of January 31 rose to 1.900 billion pounds, up 15.7% from 1.642 billion pounds at the end of December and up 49.1% from the 1.274 billion pounds in stocks a year earlier.

Stocks, on average, were expected to rise to 1.71 billion pounds, according to estimates from seven analysts. Estimates ranged from 1.60 billion to 1.83 billion pounds, with a median of 1.71 billion pounds.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 7 in SRW, up 8 3/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans up 9; Soymeal up $0.80; Soyoil up 1.05.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 2 1/4 in SRW, up 2 1/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 4 1/2; Soybeans up 8; Soymeal down $1.50; Soyoil up 1.03.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 3 1/2 in SRW, up 4 1/4 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans up 80 3/4; Soymeal up $14.10; Soyoil up 4.75.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 6.9% in SRW, up 5.8% in HRW, down 0.7% in HRS; Corn is down 2.8%; Soybeans up 10.8%; Soymeal up 4.4%; Soyoil up 20.7%.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 30 ringgit (-0.74%) at 4016.

China markets are closed for Holiday.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 94 Oats; 9 Corn; 301 Soybeans; 910 Soyoil; 163 Soymeal; 17 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 17 were: SRW Wheat down 14,838 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,474, Corn down 788, Soybeans up 22,504, Soymeal down 3,715, Soyoil up 5,366.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 17 FEBRUARY 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: A winter storm will drop 6-12+ inches of snowfall along portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest in the next 1-2 days, though crop impacts will be minimal
• SOUTH AMERICA: Cool temperatures will prevail over most of Argentina through 7-10 days before warmer conditions may arrive in a favorable outlook for late corn/soybean development
• EAST ASIA: Widespread warm/wet weather across China through the next couple weeks will be very positive for winter wheat as it exits dormancy
• SOUTH ASIA: Moderate heat risks and dry conditions along north/central India through the next 10-15 days will be unfavorable for late wheat development
• TELECONNECTIONS: Weak La Niña conditions were recorded in late January, and similar conditions have persistent into mid-February with dissipation still expected in the March-May period

 

Brazil – Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Brazil – Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday.  

Argentina – Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Isolated showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Saturday.

Argentina – La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Saturday.

Northern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to well above normal Tuesday, falling Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures below normal Sunday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated showers north Tuesday. Scattered snow north Wednesday night-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Wednesday, falling Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Thursday. 

Midwest: Scattered showers Tuesday, far north Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday, north Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Delta: Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures below normal Sunday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

 

The player sheet for 2/17 had funds: net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 8,000 corn, sellers of 5,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and sellers of 1,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: A Tunisian state grains agency was believed to have purchased about 25,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday, European traders said.
• NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that closed on Tuesday, European traders said. In the coming days, Jordan is expected to issue a new tender seeking up to 120,000 tons of wheat that will close on February 24, traders said.
• NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: A group of importers in Thailand is believed to have rejected price offers and made no purchase in an international tender for about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat which closed on Tuesday, European traders said in initial assessments on Wednesday. Prices were regarded as too high. Traders said the cheapest prices offered were around $275 to $276 a ton cost and freight included (c&f) liner out.

PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for price offers is February 18.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US Cattle on Feed Placements Seen Down 4%

January placements onto feedlots seen falling y/y to 1.75m head, according to a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts.

• Estimates range from -7.3% to -0.5% y/y change
• Feedlot herd as of Feb. 1 seen falling by 1.6% y/y to 11.53m head
• Marketings seen falling 13% y/y
• The USDA is scheduled to release its cattle on feed report at 3pm ET on Feb. 20

 

CROP SURVEY: US 2026-27 Corn Area Seen Falling to 95M Acres

Analysts see USDA’s estimate for corn planting 3.8m acres below last year’s amount, according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of as many as 17 analysts.

• Analysts see USDA’s soybean planting estimate at 85m acres, 3.8m acres more than the 2025-26 crop
• Wheat planting seen at 44.7m acres, 0.6m below last year’s crop
• Analysts see a decline in US production of corn and wheat, but see an increase in soybeans
• Cotton planting seen at 9.2m acres, on par with last season

 

US Inspected 1.492m Tons of Corn for Export, 1.203m of Soybeans

In week ending Feb. 12, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Wheat: 375k tons vs 581k the previous wk, 251k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,492k tons vs 1,610k the previous wk, 1,623k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 1,203k tons vs 1,145k the previous wk, 728k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Feb. 12

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Feb. 12 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 684k tons of the 1.2m total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Japan led in wheat

 

US Farmers Likely to Plant More Soybeans in 2026: CoBank

US farmers are expected to plant more soybeans in 2026, pulling acreage away from corn, wheat and other crops, according to an analysis from CoBank.

• “Following recent price rallies, soybeans offer greater profit potential than corn, wheat, sorghum, cotton and rice,” said Tanner Ehmke, lead grains and oilseeds economist with CoBank
  • “Beyond price signals, crop rotation needs will also play a role”
• CoBank estimates US soybean acreage will increase 5.9% over last year to reach 86 million acres
• Corn acreage, meanwhile, is projected to decrease 4.8% over last year, to 94 million acres
• Spring wheat acreage is expected to fall 1% to 9.89 million acres

 

Ukraine winter crop harvest at risk from cold snap, farmers union says

A cold snap across most of Ukraine following a thaw has led a crust of ice to form on fields that may damage the winter wheat and winter rapeseed harvest, farmers union UAC said on Wednesday.

Ukraine is one of the world’s biggest exporters of wheat. Its winter wheat harvest accounts for about 95% of the total Ukrainian wheat harvest. The crop has a higher yield than spring wheat, is sown in autumn and harvested in the summer of the following year.

Since early January, Ukraine has faced record cold temperatures, and the western, northern, and parts of the central regions were covered with snow.

The snow melted as the weather warmed at the end of last week, turning fields into pools of water, which then froze.

“There are risks for both winter wheat and rapeseed,” the UAC said in a report, adding the weather risks may lead to significant adjustments to the harvest.

Ukraine has sown around 4.5 million hectares (11.1 million acres) of winter wheat and 1.1 million hectares of winter rapeseed for the 2026 harvest, around the same area as a year earlier.

Ukrainian state meteorologists have not commented on how the frosts could affect the harvest.

 

SovEcon Raises 2026/27 Russian Wheat Crop Forecast to 85.9m Tons

SovEcon raised its forecast for Russia’s wheat harvest in the 2026-27 season by 2.1m tons to 85.9m tons, citing “better-than-average” crop conditions in the lead up to late winter, according to a note.

• Consultancy said that soil moisture reserves were “relatively high” last autumn, with “abundant” snow cover allowing for sustained moisture availability at the start of the growing season
  • Added that Russia’s Agriculture Ministry estimates the share of crops in poor condition at a historically low 3%
• SovEcon’s revised forecast also reflects a 0.2 million hectare increase in projected pre-harvest winter wheat area to 15.8 million hectares (unchanged year-on-year), due to lower expected winterkill
  • Spring wheat area is seen at 10.7 million hectares, down from 11.1 million hectares last year
• Still, “the riskiest window for winter wheat still lies ahead in March–May,” SovEcon head Andrey Sizov said in the note. “In recent years, weather anomalies during this period have become more frequent.”
  • Adds that cold damage to Russian wheat in 2024 triggered a 30% rally in CBOT wheat

 

Russian seaports capacity to grow by 21 mln tons in 2026 – Transport Minister

MOSCOW, February 17. TASS. The capacity of Russian seaports will increase by 21 mln metric tons this year, Transport Minister Andrey Nikitin said at the meeting of the State Duma Committee for Transport and Transport Infrastructure Development.

“In 2026, planned incremental growth of the seaports capacity will be 21 mln tons more. These are Ust-Luga, the Vysotsk Grain Terminal, Elga Port, and so on,” Nikitin said.

The mineral fertilizer transshipment terminal in the port of Ust-Luga is forecast to have the incremental capacity growth for 7 mln metric tons of cargoes. The Vysotsk Grain Terminal will have the capacity buildup by four mln metric tons.

The ministry expects incremental capacity growth by 10 mln metric tons in connection with further development of the Elga Port marine coal terminal in the Khabarovsk Region. –0–vnk

 

Russia, Iran Discuss ‘Large Volumes’ of Wheat Supplies: Tass

Russia and Iran have prepared food security program, Russia’s Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev says, according to Tass.

• Russia and Iran are discussing large volumes of wheat supplies from Russia
• NOTE: Russia, Iran to Launch Rail Construction from April 1: Tass

 

‘Exports to China look dismal,’ leader of busiest US seaport says

• Port of Los Angeles exports fell 8% in January, lowest in nearly three years
• Soybean exports from Port of Los Angeles to China dropped 80% last year
• First-quarter total port volume expected to fall less than 10% year-over-year

Exports from the Port of Los Angeles, the busiest U.S. gateway for ocean trade, fell 8% in January to the lowest monthly output in nearly three years, Executive Director Gene Seroka said on Tuesday.

“Exports to China look dismal,” Seroka said after the Port of Los Angeles handled 104,297 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of loaded export containers in January.

President Trump’s aggressive use of tariffs has upended global trade and retaliatory trade duties from China and other nations have hit U.S. exporters like farmers particularly hard.

Soybean shipments from the Port of Los Angeles to China dropped 80% last year, Seroka said, adding that the trade did not improve in November or December, following discussions between representatives of the two nations on the sidelines at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit.

“There’s not much that the United States is exporting to China these days,” said trade expert Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute of Economics, who added that outgoing U.S. shipments of everything from beef and corn to crude oil and coal also fell in 2025.

Closely watched imports to the Port of Los Angeles came in at 421,594 TEUs in January, down 13% from the unusually strong result the year earlier, Seroka said.

So far, imports in February appear relatively flat compared with a year earlier. Imports will slow in March due to China factory closures for the Lunar New Year holiday, he said.

Still, Seroka expects total first-quarter volume at the port to fall less than 10% versus the year-earlier quarter, when U.S. importers were rushing in goods before President Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs on countries like China took effect.

“I don’t see the economy or cargo volume dropping off a cliff after that, and even though holiday sales were softer than we would have liked, I don’t see a dire situation,” Seroka said, referring to lackluster U.S. December retail sales that signaled potential weakness in consumer spending that drives about 70% of the nation’s total economic activity.

 

India Jan. Oilmeals Exports Rise to 260,123 Tons

India’s oilmeals exports rose to 260,123 tons in January from 240,900 tons in December, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

• Rapeseed meal exports fell to 64,782 tons from 71,452 tons in December
• Soymeal exports rose to 132,440 tons from 114,697 tons in December
• Rice-bran extract exports rose to 35,367 tons from 31,237 tons in December
• Castorseed meal exports rose to 26,467 tons from 21,904 tons in December

 

EPA expected to send 2026 biofuel blending quotas to White House this week

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is expected to submit proposed biofuel blending quotas for 2026 to the White House this week for final review, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

President Donald Trump’s administration is racing to meet a self-imposed deadline to finalize delayed new U.S. biofuel blending mandates by the end of March. The White House typically takes roughly 30 days to review the proposal before it becomes public.

The EPA in June proposed total biofuel blending volumes at 24.02 billion gallons in 2026 and 24.46 billion gallons in 2027, up from 22.33 billion gallons in 2025. The total included a target of 5.61 billion gallons for bio-based diesel, a significant jump from the 3.35 billion gallons in 2025.

The agency is now weighing a slightly lower range of 5.2 billion to 5.6 billion gallons for biomass-based diesel in 2026, Reuters previously reported. Any adjustment could affect fuel credit markets and expectations for soybean oil demand, a key feedstock for biodiesel.

The potential downward adjustment is partially related to the EPA’s plan to ditch a proposal that would slash the value of renewable fuel credits given by the U.S. government for imported biofuels, an “America First” policy hailed as a victory by the soybean and biodiesel industries.

Reuters previously reported that the EPA was considering delaying the proposal for at least a year.

 

COOL AND DRY MARCH LIKELY ACROSS ARGENTINA AND SOUTH BRAZIL

Tuesday, February 17th 2026, 10:08:58 am, Marcin Gorski

by Marcin Gorski, Meteorologist/Weather Research Analyst

What to Watch:

• High confidence for dry weather in March across Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay, favorable for corn and soybean harvests
• Limited risks of wet conditions in Central Brazil that could hamper transition between 1st corn harvest and 2nd corn plantings
• Warmth and local rains in eastern Brazil will be supportive for coffee, while dry weather in Northeast sugarcane region should facilitate the harvesting/crushing

 

ASIDE FROM A BRIEF REGIONAL COLD SPELL AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WARM/WET U.S. WEATHER COULD CARRY THROUGH EARLY MARCH TO THE BENEFIT OF WHEAT

Weather Anomaly Severity: Moderate (warm episodes)

Crops impacted: Winter Wheat

Preferred model for the next 5 days: EC Op

Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: EC Ens

Forecast confidence: High through 5 days, low afterward due to uncertainty about extent of cold expansion from Canada into the U.S.

Model Change (from previous update): Milder trend across the U.S. for late February and early March.

 

 

 

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