Global Ag News For Feb 19.2026

TOP HEADLINES

As US agriculture flails, farmers see big corn acres as best bet to break even

• Farmers favor corn over soybeans due to better break-even potential
• Analyst poll projects 2026 corn plantings at 94.9 million acres
• Soy market affected by US-China trade tensions and Brazil’s record harvest

CHICAGO, Feb 18 (Reuters) – U.S. farmers, though punished by slumping prices after last year’s monster corn harvest, are expected to cut back only slightly on their plantings of the grain in 2026 as they brace for a fourth straight year of narrow profit margins or even losses.

Farmers expect corn, the most widely grown U.S. crop, to hew close to break-even levels this year, supported by strong usage. Some see soybeans as riskier, given rising competition from Brazil and a volatile U.S. trade relationship with top buyer China.

“Right now, you absolutely cannot make money on beans,” said Tim Gregerson, who farms in eastern Nebraska. “You can probably break even on corn, but you are going to have to have an extraordinary yield, or a price increase,” Gregerson said.

Most growers in America’s Midwest farm belt grow both crops, alternating what gets planted on each field from year to year to boost soil health. Many add wheat, sorghum, cotton or other crops to their rotations. But among farmers who have some flexible acres where they can plant anything, many see corn as their best bet.

Planting decisions for 2026, hashed out in the winter months, mark the first step in determining the amount of grain produced in the world’s largest corn exporting nation and the second-biggest soybean supplier after Brazil.

Decisions are particularly challenging this year after the U.S. Agriculture Department made unprecedented revisions in January to its estimate of the last season’s harvested corn acreage, which, along with larger-than-expected estimates of the 2025 corn yield and stocks on hand as of December 1, pushed down prices.

Ahead of the USDA’s annual outlook forum this week, analysts surveyed by Reuters on average projected corn plantings for 2026 at 94.9 million acres, down about 4% from last year’s 89-year high, but still the second-most corn acres in 13 years. The poll put soybean plantings at 84.9 million acres, in line with the 10-year average and up from the 81 million acres seeded in 2025, a six-year low.

U.S. farmers grew the biggest corn crop in history last year at more than 17 billion bushels, stuffing the nation’s grain bins and weighing on Chicago Board of Trade corn Cv1 futures.

However, a record pace of export sales and robust demand from ethanol producers has kept a floor under prices as acreage ideas for 2026 take shape.

Even with rising costs for inputs such as seeds and fertilizer, CBOT December CZ26 corn futures, representing the 2026 harvest, are hovering near $4.60 a bushel, close to break-even levels for farmers.

“The market is signaling, ‘We don’t want you to cut too many corn acres.’ We don’t need as many as last year, but with today’s demand base, it’s not like we need a huge drop,” said Frayne Olson, an agricultural economist with North Dakota State University.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 5 1/2 in SRW, up 7 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans up 4 1/2; Soymeal up $0.60; Soyoil up 0.28.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 9 1/4 in SRW, up 14 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 5 1/4; Soybeans up 4; Soymeal down $4.30; Soyoil up 1.77.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 12 in SRW, up 14 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/4; Soybeans up 76 1/2; Soymeal up $11.60; Soyoil up 5.30.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 8.9% in SRW, up 8.1% in HRW, up 0.5% in HRS; Corn is down 3.0%; Soybeans up 10.4%; Soymeal up 3.5%; Soyoil up 22.3%.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 101 ringgit (+2.51%) at 4117.

China markets remain closed for Holiday.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 94 Oats; 9 Corn; 301 Soybeans; 910 Soyoil; 163 Soymeal; 17 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 18 were: SRW Wheat down 3,094 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,648, Corn down 2,381, Soybeans up 6,657, Soymeal down 6,832, Soyoil up 9,393.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 18 FEBRUARY 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: Cold temperatures will spill out from Canada into the Northern/Central U.S. Plains through the weekend before shifting eastward, with warmth returning from west to east next week to the benefit of wheat
• SOUTH AMERICA: Dry Argentina weather could intensify through the month of March to the detriment of soybean development, though impacts may be lessened by mild temperatures
• AFRICA: Near to below normal rainfall through the next 10 days along the cocoa regions of West Africa will be favorable for the crop just ahead of its main development period
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: A divided, but near normal rainfall pattern across Indonesia/Malaysia will have minimal impacts on palm oil production through the next couple weeks
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has moved into its positive phase and is likely to persist there for months, supporting the prospects for a warm spring in North America and El Niño development ahead

 

STRONGLY DIVIDED SOUTH AMERICA WEATHER IN LATE FEBRUARY WILL FEATURE BRAZIL FLOODING AND INTENSIFYING ARGENTINA DRYNESS

Weather Anomaly Severity: High (Brazil flooding, Argentina dryness)

Crops impacted: corn, soybeans, coffee, sugar

Preferred model for the next 5 days: EC Op

Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: EC Ens

Forecast confidence: High throughout the next 15 days from strong consensus among models and teleconnections.

Model Change (from previous update): Wetter across most of Brazil.

 

Brazil: Showers have been very isolated over central Brazil over the last several days, which may have allowed fieldwork to progress more rapidly as the country continues to harvest soybeans and plant corn. Waves of showers moving up from Argentina will continue to expand across the country this week and especially next week. The country needs the rain as subsoil moisture continues to be low for this time of year and will be counted on for the coming safrinha corn crop.

Argentina: A few waves of showers will move through the country through the weekend, but will be spotty in nature and favor areas that are not in the deepest need of rainfall until maybe Monday across Buenos Aires. Rain has improved soil moisture in some areas, but both corn and soybeans have been trying to improve conditions since the end of January with little progress. Crop conditions for both have not increased since the declines started in early January. For some of the crop, the rains are too late, but there is still time for the later-planted portions of both crops.

Northern Plains: A big winter storm continues with some heavy snow for northern areas on Wednesday and additional snow may come to southern areas on Thursday. Colder temperatures will stick around for a little while as well, but are likely to rise ahead of the next big storm next week. Strong winds are also occurring on Wednesday, causing blizzard conditions in a few spots. Additional strong storm systems are forecast next week.

Central/Southern Plains: Strong winds and dry soils have made for some wildfires in a couple of states since Tuesday. Though some good rain fell across parts of the region over the weekend, soil moisture is not all that favorable for winter wheat, especially across the west, and drought is a big problem across Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas prior to spring planting. The winds are calming down, but the storm systems are not. Another storm will move through on Thursday with a band of snow across Nebraska and another storm could bring some showers through on Friday, with potential for snow across Kansas. A couple of storm systems are likely next week, too, but will favor northern areas of the Plains instead of the Central and South. Instead, strong winds could dry soils quicker, especially with temperatures rising again next week.

Midwest: Snowpack is extremely low across most of the region and we will need to see significant precipitation prior to spring planting to feel good about soil moisture. Streaks of drought, especially from Missouri to northwestern Ohio, are the major issues heading into spring, though the weather pattern is opening up and promising some bigger storm potential. One system continues to move through on Wednesday, followed by another for Thursday and Friday. Some showers may linger into the weekend as well. When added together, there is potential for widespread rain and thunderstorms south with snow across the north. Additional storm systems are forecast for next week as well.

Delta: A system moved through over the weekend, which brought widespread precipitation to most areas. This will provide some boost to the Mississippi River, but more will be needed to ease the drought that is very widespread through the Delta prior to spring planting. Multiple larger storms are forecast for the rest of February, which may provide some benefit to the rivers, but favors the Plains and Midwest with the significant precipitation and leaves the region in drought.

 

The player sheet for 2/18 had funds: net buyers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 1,000 corn, buyers of 3,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and buyers of 4,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday. The deadline for submitting price offers is February 24.
• BARLEY PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grain buyer purchased about 50,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender on Wednesday, European traders said. Traders said they had received indications that Jordan was expected to issue a new tender seeking 120,000 tons of feed barley in the coming days that would close on February 25.
• NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: A group of importers in Thailand was believed to have rejected price offers and made no purchase in an international tender for about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat that closed on Tuesday, European traders said in initial assessments on Wednesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Thursday. The deadline for price offers is February 25. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan purchased 50,000 tons in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of barley on Wednesday.

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Feb. 13 are based on four analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 1.126m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 25.649m bbl vs 25.247m a week ago

 

Rains return to southern Brazil bolstering soy fields

Recent rains have brought relief to soybean fields in Brazil’s southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul, which had been grappling with hot, dry weather that compromised yield potential, according to weather service Rural Clima and LSEG meteorological data.

In a Wednesday report, agrometeorologist Marco Antonio dos Santos said some parts of Rio Grande do Sul had received between 30 millimeters and 40 millimeters of rain. That, he said, brought some relief to parts of Argentina as well as Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, where fields had been very dry without rains.

In the past seven days, more than 40 millimeters of rain fell in the Rio Grande do Sul’s southwest, while in the north and southeast it rained around 30 millimeters, according to data from LSEG’s weather terminal.

“People were talking about 23 million tonnes, but we can’t talk about 23 million anymore…,” Santos said, referring to market forecasts for Rio Grande do Sul’s soy production.

Before weather conditions deteriorated, Brazilian crop agency Conab had estimated Rio Grande do Sul’s soybean harvest at 21.4 million metric tonnes, up 28.7% from the previous year.

Overall, Brazil is still expected to reap a record of nearly 178 million metric tons in the 2025/26 marketing year, Conab said last week.

Last Friday, Emater, Rio Grande do Sul’s crop agency, said average soybean yields would have to be reassessed in the state as dry weather persisted.

Going forward, Rural Clima’s Santos said, conditions are improving for crop development in Argentina, Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina.

While the return of rains favored southern fields, dry weather prevailed in central regions of Brazil, accelerating harvest progress after a spell of persistent rain last week that slowed work in Mato Grosso state.

That pattern of prolonged rain could be repeated in the last week of February, Santos said, potentially affecting soybean harvesting and second corn planting.

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 11.46 Million Tns In February – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 11.46 MILLION TNS IN FEBRUARY VERSUS 11.71 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.12 MILLION TNS IN FEBRUARY VERSUS 953,217 TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.82 MILLION TNS IN FEBRUARY VERSUS 1.93 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

U.S. winter wheat outlook steady despite weather variability

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2026/27 U.S. WHEAT PRODUCTION: 51.7 [49.1–54.3] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

The 2026/27 U.S. winter wheat outlook remains stable, with planted area and production holding at 33.01 million acres and 36.6 million tons, respectively. However, low soil‑moisture levels across parts of the soft red winter (SRW) wheat belt and potential spring freeze risks over the coming weeks warrant continued attention. Over the past month, temperatures were generally above average in the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Plains, while most other major winter wheat regions experienced near‑normal to colder conditions. Rainfall has been below average across many wheat‑growing areas, and soil moisture in portions of the Midwest and the Southeastern SRW belt has slipped to near six‑year lows, underscoring the need for close monitoring.

Short‑term forecasts indicate a brief cold spell next week, followed by a gradual warming trend toward the end of February. Rainfall is expected to remain low to moderate, providing some potential for soil‑moisture improvement in areas facing deficits. Looking further ahead, March is projected to bring near‑normal to slightly above‑normal temperatures and typical precipitation levels across most key winter wheat regions. While widespread winterkill risk appears unlikely, ongoing temperature volatility remains a concern. A warm start to March followed by an abrupt cold snap could heighten spring freeze risk, particularly if crops exit dormancy earlier than usual.

 

Ukraine’s wheat outlook remains stable despite recent cold weather

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2026/27 UKRAINE WHEAT PRODUCTION: 22.8 [21.7-24.0] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

The 2026/27 Ukraine wheat production forecast remains unchanged at 22.8 [21.7–24.0] million tons. Excluding Crimea and other occupied territories, output is estimated at 21.7 million tons. Despite episodes of ice crust and severe cold spells in parts of the south, east, and centre, winter wheat conditions are generally stable. Government assessments indicate that recent frosts are unlikely to cause widespread damage, although isolated fields with limited snow cover may have been exposed to cold damage.

Over the past month, most wheat‑growing areas have experienced colder‑than‑normal temperatures. Northern and western regions recorded generally below‑average rainfall, while the rest of the country received near to above average precipitation.

In the short term, western and central Ukraine are expected to remain colder before gradually warming toward late February, with moderate rainfall throughout. Eastern and southern regions are forecast to experience near‑normal to slightly above‑average temperatures, accompanied by moderate precipitation over the next two weeks. Rainfall could help improve soil‑moisture levels, particularly in western regions where deficits persist. March is forecast to bring near‑normal to mildly warmer weather accompanied by typical precipitation levels, which should continue to favour crop development.

 

Winter wheat conditions remain generally favourable across China’s main growing regions

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2026/27 CHINA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 140.95 [136.7-145.9] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Winter conditions remain broadly favourable for China’s winter wheat crop, supported by seasonal temperatures and adequate soil moisture. Over the past month, rainfall across major production regions has been near normal to below average. Temperatures varied, ranging from slightly below to slightly above normal across the North China Plain, while the Loess Plateau was generally warmer.

In the coming 10 days, temperatures across all key wheat‑growing regions are expected to rise above average, with rainfall remaining low to moderate across China’s wheat belt. Further into March, forecasts point to mildly warmer conditions and near‑seasonal precipitation. These patterns should continue to support winter wheat development, with only minor dryness concerns lingering in parts of the North China Plain.

 

India’s wheat outlook steady as weather conditions remain supportive

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2026/27 INDIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 114.4 [108.7-120.1] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

India’s wheat production for the 2026/27 season is projected at 114.4 [108.7–120.1] million tons. Soil moisture levels remain adequate across key wheat‑growing regions, and prevailing weather conditions continue to generally support healthy crop development. Over the past month, most major wheat‑producing areas recorded near‑normal to slightly warmer temperatures and below‑average rainfall, while parts of northern and central India experienced above‑average precipitation, helping to maintain a stable production outlook.

Short‑term forecasts indicate near‑normal to warmer temperatures and limited precipitation across much of the wheat‑growing belt. Although higher‑than‑normal February temperatures warrant monitoring due to potential yield impacts, March projections from LSEG point to near‑normal temperatures and rainfall in key wheat‑producing regions. If realized, these conditions should support favorable crop development through the remainder of the growing season.

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Weather and low prices discourage producers; area is likely to drop

Cepea, 18 – Conab has released a report this month indicating decreases for area, productivity and production in the Brazilian 2026 season. This scenario is related to weather conditions and low prices, among other aspects – data from Cepea show that quotations are in a downward trend since May last year.

Data from Conab indicate that Brazil is likely to harvest 6.9 million tons of wheat this year, downing 12.3% in relation to 2025. The average productivity is estimated at 2.978 tons per hectare, for a decrease of 7.5% in the same comparison. The area is expected to drop 5.2%, at 2.318 million hectares.

Initial stocks for the 2026 season were adjusted to 2.314 million tons, upping 57% against 2025. The domestic consumption should be steady at 11.8 million tons, while the domestic availability may total 15.93 million tons. This scenario may result in ending stocks of 2.1 million tons. Imports, in turn, are likely to drop 1.5% compared to the 2025 season.

 

Indonesia, US firms sign over $7 billion in trade, investment deals

Indonesian and U.S. companies on Wednesday signed trade and investment deals valued at more than $7 billion a day ahead of Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump to sign a final trade deal, the U.S.-ASEAN Business Council said.

The agreements, signed at a dinner for Prabowo hosted by the Chamber, include purchases by Indonesian firms of 1 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, 1.6 million tons of corn, and 93,000 tons of cotton over unspecified periods, according to a U.S.-ASEAN Business Council (USABC) fact sheet.

It added that Indonesia will buy 1 million tons of wheat this year and up to 5 million tons by 2030.

The deals include a memorandum of understanding between U.S. mining group Freeport McMoRan FCX.N and the Indonesian Ministry of Investment for critical minerals cooperation and an agreement between state oil producer Pertamina and Halliburton Co HAL.N to cooperate on oilfield recovery, USABC said.

 

US to Invest $40M in Mexico-Based Maize Center for Food Security

The US will pour funds into the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), headquartered in Mexico, to strengthen food security cooperation with its neighbor, according to a statement from US Ambassador Ron Johnson.

• Nearly 60% of US wheat acreage benefits from CIMMYT-derived varieties: statement
• The US and Mexico are working together to improve wheat varieties, protect Mexico’s maize biodiversity, reduce fertilizer dependency and expand research trial

 

Argentine maritime workers’ labor reform strike halts grain shipments

Argentine maritime workers from the country’s maritime workers federation FESIMAF launched a 48-hour strike on Wednesday over a planned labor reform, which the country’s grain exporters’ chamber said was paralyzing shipments in the nation’s ports.

Argentina is a top global supplier of grains, and the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and meal.

“This (48-hour strike) is clearly bringing agro-export activities to a complete standstill,” Gustavo Idigoras, the president of Argentina’s CIARA-CEC grain exporters and processors chamber told Reuters.

“We believe it is a purely political measure that is far removed from specific needs,” he added.

FESIMAF said the strike action, which comes a day before a planned nationwide walkout called by Argentina’s powerful CGT labor federation, aims to defend workers’ labor rights and job stability from the proposed far-reaching changes in labor law.

Argentina’s SOEA oilseed crushers’ union also said it will go on a 24-hour strike on Thursday.

“We strongly condemn this misnamed modernization that only seeks to legalize labor setbacks, the destruction of thousands of jobs, and the dismantling of our national industry,” said SOEA leader Daniel Succi in a statement.

The strike is a protest against President Javier Milei’s planned labor reform bill, which has proposed to limit the right to strike, cap severance pay, tighten sick pay and limit workers’ ability to claim damages after dismissal.

The reform, a flagship policy for Milei’s administration, has drawn strong opposition from Argentine unions, which say the package threatens long-standing worker protections.

The maritime strike was expected to disrupt cargo loading and unloading, pilot transfers and other services for commercial vessels, mainly in the port area of ​​Rosario, one of the world’s largest agricultural export hubs, according to industry sources.

“Ships are being loaded, but once they’re two or three feet short of the draft needed for dispatch, they’ll almost certainly stop,” Guillermo Wade, manager of the Chamber of Port and Maritime Activities told Reuters earlier on Wednesday.

Argentina’s lower house is scheduled to debate the bill on Thursday, after its approval in the Senate last week.

 

Trump signs order on domestic herbicide supply for defense purposes, White House says

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday signed an executive order invoking the Defense Production Act to ensure an adequate U.S. supply of elemental phosphorus and glyphosate-based herbicides, the White House said.

 

 

 

 

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