ADMIS News
COFFEE
May Coffee was lower early Wednesday after failing to take out the March 9 high on Tuesday. That level, 301.65, could be a key resistance area today. World Weather Inc said Tuesday that a favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected in coffee areas of Brazil during the next week to ten days. Sufficient rain is predicted to support most cherry development. Temperatures should continue in a seasonable range. Vietnam’s coffee areas were mostly dry Monday and rain during the next week should not be great enough to stimulate much flowering without irrigation. Safras & Mercado said Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee sales have reached 77% of the expected output versus 93% of current crop sales a year ago. Sales for 2026/27 have reached 12% versus 13% a year ago. The Brazilian real was higher yesterday, which also discouraged selling for export. There were reports this week that exporters in Vietnam were holding back on purchases because some shipping lines are reluctant to take on new bookings given the disruption to shipping caused by the U.S.-Israel war on Iran. On the other hand some have turned bullish because of higher energy, transportation and fertilizer costs.
COCOA
May Cocoa was near unchanged early Wednesday as the market continued to consolidate its modest gains off the contract lows from late February. Traders expects lower official farmgate prices in Ivory Coast and Ghana to help get backed up supply sold, and this has taken pressure off the market. It does appear that West African production will continue to show improvement over last year, but if rains start to ease, there may be some reassessment. World Weather Inc. said on Tuesday that showers and thunderstorms will continue to pop up periodically from Ivory Coast to Cameroon cocoa production areas during the next week. Temperatures will remain warm, and some cooling would be welcome. Ivory Coast farmers told Reuters this week that rains were below average last week in most of country’s cocoa-growing regions but that soil moisture content was enough to boost the March-to-August mid-crop.
SUGAR
May Sugar was lower early Wednesday after making another attempt at March 9 high overnight. The market has been trading in a choppy, sideways pattern since putting in the high on the 9th, the same day crude oil put in its high. Rising energy prices are bullish for sugar as they can prompt cane mills in Brazil to cut increase ethanol production from cane at the expense of sugar. Brazil’s new marketing year officially begins April 1. As of February 1, Brazilian Center South sugar’s cane crushing for the 2025/26 marketing year was 50.74% versus 49.26% for that point in 2024/25. A number of local industry lobbies said on Monday that Brazil’s ethanol production is forecast to rise by some 4 billion liters in the 2026/27 season from a year earlier, which would be a new record.
Conab said Brazil is expected to produce 36.66 billion liters of ethanol in 2025/26 season, which ends in March.
COTTON
May Cotton was lower early Wednesday with the decline in crude oil prices, but it was inside Tuesday’s range and was holding most of the gains from Monday. A technical rally this week sparked heavy short covering on the part of the funds, who had been holding a near-record short position. Dry conditions in the US right at the start of the growing season is bullish, and higher energy prices raise the cost of man-made fibers like polyester. The market has rallied despite concerns that global demand could suffer due to energy-driven inflation. World Weather Inc said west and south Texas would be dry or mostly dry into the last days of the month. A few showers may evolve as the month comes to an end, but a general soaking is not very likely. US Delta and southeastern states will continue to receive lighter than usual precipitation into mid-spring, and temperatures will trend warmer after today for a while.
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