Global Ag News For March 18.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Kazakhstan Resumes Grain Supplies to Iran: Interfax

Kazakh exporters have resumed grain shipments to Iran after short pause caused by military operations in Middle East, Interfax reports, citing state-owned grain operator.

• There have been no reported cases of force majeure being invoked under contracts with Iran
• NOTE: In 2025 Kazakhstan exported about 1m tons of wheat to Iran

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/4 in SRW, down 3/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans down 4 1/4; Soymeal up $1.40; Soyoil down 0.58.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 22 3/4 in SRW, down 24 in HRW, down 1/6 in HRS; Corn is down 14 1/4; Soybeans down 72 1/2; Soymeal down $9.60; Soyoil down 2.05.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 1/2 in SRW, up 25 1/2 in HRW, up 1/6 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/2; Soybeans down 18; Soymeal down $7.40; Soyoil up 3.54.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 16.6% in SRW, up 17.7% in HRW, up 9.8% in HRS; Corn is up 2.9%; Soybeans up 11.9%; Soymeal up 6.3%; Soyoil up 36.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 26) Soybeans down 9 yuan; Soymeal up 8; Soyoil down 14; Palm oil down 66; Corn up 3 — Malaysian Palm is down 49.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 49 ringgit (-1.07%) at 4532.

There were changes in registrations (-39 Corn). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 94 Oats; 641 Corn; 523 Soybeans; 1,536 Soyoil; 241 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 17 were: SRW Wheat up 254 contracts, HRW Wheat up 6,492, Corn down 20,438, Soybeans down 39,117, Soymeal up 793, Soyoil up 8,053.

 

COLD RISKS IN THE U.S. UNLIKELY TO IMPACT KEY WINTER WHEAT REGIONS

Weather anomaly severity: High

Crops impacted: Winter Wheat (dryness)

Preferred model for the next 5 days:EC Op

Preferred model for the 6-15 day timeframe: EC Ens

Forecast confidence: Relativelyhigh throughout the next 15 days

Forecast change: Prolongedcold in Northeast U.S. for the 7-15 day timeframe

  

Brazil – Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

Brazil – Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

Argentina – Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday.

Argentina – La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday.

Northern Plains: Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal Wednesday-Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Central/Southern Plains: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, well above normal Thursday-Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.  

Midwest – West: Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures well below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, well above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Midwest – East: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Saturday. Outlook: Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

 

The player sheet for 3/17 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,500 corn, sellers of 7,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and buyers of 9,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday, traders said.
• SOYBEAN PURCHASE: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. has bought about 125,000 metric tons of food-quality soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms in an international tender which closed on March 12, European traders said on Tuesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 74,382 metric tons of rice, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers was March 11.
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 metric tons of long-grain white rice sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers was March 13.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is March 18.
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 105,020 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States, European traders said. The deadline for submitting price offers is March 19.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday.              A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan purchased 60,000 tons in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US Cattle on Feed Placements Seen Up 0.3% Y/y

February placements onto feedlots seen rising y/y to 1.56m head, according to a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts.

• Estimates range from -3.7% to +5% y/y change
• Feedlot herd as of March 1 seen falling by 0.7% y/y to 11.49m head
• Marketings seen falling 7.6% y/y

 

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending March 13 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen slightly lower than last week at 1.125m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 25.74m bbl vs 25.58m a week ago

 

Coceral Raises 2026 Grain Crop Forecast for the EU and UK

The combined grain harvest for the regions is now seen at 298.8m tons, up from 296.7m tons in an initial forecast, industry group Coceral said Tuesday in a report.

• Forecast still places 2026 crop well below the 310.5m tons seen last year
• Wheat, barley and rapeseed production are set to decline from the 2025 harvest
• Corn should recover in 2026 after a drought impacted production last year, the report said
  • However, corn yields have disappointed in recent years, so plantings will likely continue to shrink, with farmers switching to other spring crops, such as sunflowers and soybeans

 

Brazil to negotiate soybean inspection framework after Chinese complaints, minister says

• Recasts first sentence with complaints from Beijing, adds comments by agriculture minister, adds details and background throughout
• Brazil denies reports of eased soybean inspection rules
• Officials to propose sanitary protocol in China next week
• Traders complain tighter checks slow shipments, raise costs during peak season

Brazilian Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro said on Tuesday that the government will negotiate soybean inspection and safety requirements for Brazilian shipments of the crop to China, following complaints from Beijing.

Favaro said Brazil had not eased inspections in recent days, denying reports by local media that the government had made changes to make exports more flexible.

The minister confirmed that Brazil had received complaints from Chinese buyers and authorities after some cargoes showed the presence of weed seeds, and that it intensified inspections when the complaints persisted.

Media outlet Globo Rural reported on Monday that the Agriculture Ministry would hand over some soybean-inspection duties to shipping-supervision companies, after complaints from trading firms about the tougher inspection rules which they said made it harder to obtain export certificates.

“No rule was changed,” Favaro said. “We have the legal obligation to inspect.”

He added that vessels with pending inspections would receive certificates only if their cargoes met the standards required by China, the world’s largest soybean importer. “If there had been any easing, the ships would be sailing,” he said.

 

Trump invites farmers, biofuels producers to White House event

• White House agriculture event amid biofuel quota fight
• Refiners warn mandates could lift fuel prices
• Farmers eye stronger crop demand from mandates

U.S. President Donald Trump has invited farmers and biofuel producers to an agriculture event at the White House next week, two sources familiar with the planning said, as his administration moves to finalize new biofuel blending quotas.

The administration is preparing to finalize long-delayed biofuel blending quotas for 2026 and 2027 by the end of the month, a decision with sweeping implications across the U.S. energy and agricultural sectors.

It is unclear whether the event, first reported by CBS News, will coincide with the final rule being released.

Last year, the administration proposed significantly boosting the amount of renewable fuel that must be blended into the nation’s fuel supply under the Renewable Fuel Standard, raising the total mandate to about 24.02 billion gallons in 2026 and 24.46 billion gallons in 2027, up from 22.33 billion gallons required in 2025.

U.S. refiners are making a last-minute push to persuade the administration to temper those increases, arguing that higher blending requirements could add to fuel price pressures at a time when the White House is already concerned about potential spikes tied to the conflict with Iran, according to multiple interviews with industry executives.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

The biofuel decision comes at a fraught moment for both the oil and farm sectors, with the White House balancing pressure from refiners worried about gasoline prices and farmers counting on stronger biofuel demand to support crop markets.

The quotas, which determine how much ethanol, biodiesel and other renewable fuels must be blended into U.S. gasoline and diesel, can ripple through everything from pump prices to corn and soybean demand, making them one of Washington’s most closely watched energy and agricultural policies.

U.S. farmers are on edge about potential planting disruptions this spring because fertilizer prices have spiked by more than a third since U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran disrupted Middle East exports.

Even before the war, farmers were struggling to make money due to weak grain prices and soaring bills for fertilizer, seeds and agricultural chemicals.

Crop prices sagged last year under pressure from high supplies and as U.S. exports suffered due to Trump’s trade war with China, the world’s biggest soybean importer. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has started distributing $12 billion in aid to farmers hurt by Trump’s trade policy.

 

Brazil soy exports seen reaching 16.32 million tns in March

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 16.32 MILLION TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 16.47 MILLION TNS ESTIMATED IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.66 MILLION TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 2.82 MILLION TNS ESTIMATED IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

Oil and poor weather push up Ukraine rapeseed prices, farmers’ union says

Rising oil prices, driven by conflict in the Gulf and poor weather conditions that damaged crops, are pushing up export forward prices for the new Ukrainian rapeseed crop, farmers’ union UAC said on Tuesday.

Ukraine, a large European rapeseed grower and exporter, harvested about 3.7 million metric tons of rapeseed in 2024. The harvest fell to 3.3 million tons in 2025, mostly because of unfavourable weather.

Ukraine exports most of its harvest, mainly to Europe. The crop is used not only to produce edible oil, but also biodiesel.

“If oil prices remain high, the price of rapeseed will fluctuate between $550 and $570 per ton (CPT Black Sea),” UAC said in a report.

Export forward prices for Ukraine’s 2026 rapeseed harvest were seen in early March at $540-$545 a ton including transport costs for July-August delivery, against $530-$540 a ton projected at the end of February.

Rapeseed is currently selling at $565-$580 a ton CPT Black Sea.

Consultancy APK-Inform said this month that Ukraine’s rapeseed harvest could increase to 3.83 million tons in 2026 from 3.33 million tons a year earlier.

Ukraine could export 2.7 million tons of rapeseed in 2026/27, versus 2 million tons in 2025/26, the consultancy said.

 

Russia March Wheat Exports Could Touch 4.5m Tons: Rusagrotrans

Russia’s wheat exports in March could be as high as 4.3-4.5m tons, according to the analytical center of railway operator Rusagrotrans, “the second-highest result after March 2023.”

• That’s up from last week’s forecast of 3.7m tons and well above the five-year average of about 2.9m tons
• Russia shipped 2.1m tons of wheat in the first 16 days of March
• “Exports are increasing as global prices rise and the ruble weakens,” Interfax reported, citing the center
• Last year, just over 2m tons were shipped in March
• Snow cover across much of the Central Federal District is likely to melt by next week, easing risks for winter crops
  • Likely rain in the southern regions should help maintain soil moisture
  • Early spring planting is accelerating

 

SovEcon Raises Russia March Wheat Export Forecast to 3.8m Tons

March exports were well above the five-year average of about 3.1m tons, amid improving competitiveness, according to a note from SovEcon.

• In March, the spread between French and Russian wheat widened to $6–8/mt from around zero at the start of the year
• Margins for Russian wheat exports have turned positive after being near zero or negative at the start of the year
  • Wheat exports from Russia’s key competitors declined in early March. Ukraine shipped 0.3m tons in the first half of the month, down from 0.7m tons a year earlier, SovEcon said, citing the Economy Ministry of Ukraine. EU shipments fell to 0.7m tons from 1.1m tons, the consultancy estimated
• SovEcon in February cut its 2025-26 Russia wheat export forecast by 0.3m tons to 45.4m tons, citing weaker competitiveness
  • “Given the current strong shipment pace and improving competitive position of Russian wheat, we do not rule out an upward revision in the future”

 

 

 

 

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