Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Mixed trade across the Ag space this AM to kick off the Holiday shortened week. Markets are closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday. Energy prices are higher despite optimism from Pres. Trump the war with Iran may be entering its finally stages. Overnight the President stated that Iran has “for the most part” accepted a 15-point peace plan to end the war while they also agreed to let another 20 ships pass thru the Straits of Hormuz over the next 10 days. On a typical day 100+ ships pass thru the narrow passageway. Spot WTI crude oil is up $1.35 per barrel near $101. Spot RBOB is up $.04 per gallon with HO $.13 higher. Following a dry weekend, waves of precipitation are expected across the central Midwest this week with 1.5- 3+” common. Good rains for the SE plains while only lite, scattered amounts for W. TX, OK and KS. A midweek cool front will drop temperatures to well below normal readings across the N. Midwest and Great Lakes region. Heavy rains in C. Buenos Aires this weekend may have produced isolated flooding. Rain this week to again favor BA and surrounding provinces. Dry across much of Brazil this weekend. This week will see showers favor the SC region and NE. The US $$ and US equity markets are moderately higher.
Corn:
May-26 is down $.00 ½ at $4.61 ½ while Dec-26 is down $.01 ½ at $4.89. The MM long position is corn at nearly 285k contracts reached a fresh 13 month high. The Reuters poll shows analysts expect Mch 1st stocks at 9.104 bil. bu. up from 8.147 YA. We are just below that at 9.074 bil. Estimates range from 8.575 – 9.378 bil. Corn acres are expected to slip to 94.371 bil down from 98.788 YA. We are at 93.75 mil. with the range of guesses 92.60 – 96 mil. The end of March USDA reports has been supportive for corn in recent years closing higher the past 5, and 65% of the years since 2000. No surprise with EPA keeping US ethanol blend mandate at 15 bil gallons. Dry conditions in the south should have enabled sizable corn plantings this week in TX, LA, MS and AR. The BAGE kept their Argentina production forecast unchanged at 57 mmt, well above the USDA est. of 52 mmt. The report harvest has reached 15%.
Soybeans:
May-26 beans are up $.07 ¾ at $11.67 while Nov-26 beans are $.04 higher at $11.48, both holding within Friday’s range. May-26 meal is down $1.70 at $313.60 while challenging its 100-day MA. May-26 oil is up 144 points at 68.85 hovering just below Friday’s high. The Biomass-based diesel volume figure at 9.07 bil. Gallons in 2026 and 9.2 bil. in 2027 (including 70% SRE reallocation) was slightly above expectations. We’ll get updated green diesel production, capacity and feedstocks usage data from the EPA tomorrow. Foreign feedstocks will be eligible for a full RIN credit up to 2028 when it falls to 50%. The Reuters poll shows analysts expected Mch 1st stocks at 2.067 bil bu. up from 1.911 YA. Estimates range from 1.880 – 2.125 bil. We are near the high end of the range at 2.116 bil. Bean acres are expected to jump to 85.55 bil up from 81.215 YA. We are at 85.5 mil. with the range of guesses 84.25–86.5 mil. Friday’s CFTC report showed MM’s bought just over 20k contracts across the soybean complex pushing their net long position out to a record high at 428,457 contracts.
Wheat:
Prices range from $.04 -$.08 lower. CGO May-26 is down $.04 at $6.01 while KC May-26 is down $.08 at $6.24 ¾. The Reuters poll shows analysts expected Mch 1st stocks at 1.310 bil bu. up from 1.237 YA. We are at 1.323 bil. with the range of est. at 1.289 – 1.334 bil. All wheat acres are expected to slip to 44.786 down from 45.328 YA. Winter wheat acres are expected to fall to 32.73 mil. vs. 33.153 YA. For WW we are at 32.6 mil. with a range of est. 31.9 to 33.4 mil. Across the 3 classes of wheat MM’s were net buyers of just over 10k contracts, extending their combined long position to 23,429 contracts, the largest since July-22.
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