Written Commentary
BASE METALS
Copper: Copper prices are lower, with benchmark three-month copper on the LME down 0.1% at $12,344 earlier in the morning as rising warehouse stocks and anxiety over Tuesday night’s deadline pressure prices. The broader near-term macro case for copper appears bearish as elevated energy prices and supply chain risks weigh on the outlook for industrial demand and global growth, while elevated inventory levels at the CME and COMEX show little appetite for demand.
Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its forecast of a surplus in the global copper market this year to 490,000 tons from the previously expected 380,000 tons after its economists estimated that higher energy prices could shave 0.4% off global GDP growth. Copper stocks in the LME-registered warehouses rose to 378,775 tons, their eight-year high, after 16,125 tons of inflows in Asia, Europe and the US on April 2, LME data showed.
Meanwhile, major Chinese smelters are planning to raise or maintain output in 2026, per 2026 earnings outlooks, despite a public commitment late last year to cut production by more than 10%. Jiangxi Copper, China’s top copper smelter, raised 2026 production guidance for copper cathodes to 2.39 million metric tons, up from 2.38 million tons produced in 2025. Similarly, Yunnan Copper increased its 2026 guidance to 1.71 million tons, up from 1.64 million tons produced last year. Daye Nonferrous, which published results last week, flagged a slight drop in 2026 to 713,000 tons, from output of 716,000 tons for last year. The three smelters produced a third of China’s refined copper last year.
Zinc: Zinc gained 1.8% to $3,322.
Aluminum: Aluminum gained 1.1% to $3,507. The aluminum spread on the LME jumped with the market pricing in confirmation of prolonged repairs which a smelter in the UAE is facing after an Iranian attack late last month. The premium for LME cash aluminum contract over the three-month contract was last at $77, its highest since 2007, up from $61 in late March, signaling tightening availability for immediate supply.
Emirates Global Aluminum said on Friday that fully restoring production at its Al Taweelah smelter, which produced 1.6 million tons of cast metal in 2025, could take up to a year as it entered an emergency shutdown after the March 28 attacks.
Tin: Tin lost 0.6% to $46,000.
Lead: Lead was steady at $1,933.
Nickel: Nickel was down 0.5% at $17,000.
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold: Gold prices slipped, with April COMEX contacts down 0.43% to $4,664 as markets assessed President Trump’s deadline (ending 8 p.m. EST Tuesday) for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, dollar strength and a rise in bond yields continue to act as a headwind on gold prices. Confusion surrounding talks between the US and Iran is also keeping gold in a tight trading range, keeping both bulls and bears in check.
Monday’s ISM services data showed the prices gauge rose to 7.7 points to 70.7 in March, the highest reading since October 2022. Survey respondents noted that higher energy costs are flowing through into airline operations, freight logistics, and energy-intensive service inputs. Average US gasoline prices rose approximately 38% since US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran commenced, and retail diesel costs have materially impacted airline operating margins and trucking/logistics networks. These price pressures are likely to find their way into the broader economy if the conflict continues to persist, though March’s inflation print is likely to show inflation limited to just the energy components.
Friday’s payrolls report did little to move Fed policy expectations, with markets pricing in no change to the Fed Feds rate by year-end. One-year inflation swaps remain elevated ahead of March’s inflation data, which is likely to show a sharp, energy-induced spike in prices. Swaps are currently priced near 3.2%. Still, a move up from the Fed appears unlikely. Hawkish Fed expectations have been a factor that has been offering strong headwinds to gold prices and supporting dollar strength. A drawdown on these expectations would likely lead to an upside breakout in gold, though that is dependent upon the reopening of the Strait.
Silver: Silver futures are down1.90% to $71.52.
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