Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
There were no dramatic changes over the holiday weekend in the Persian Gulf conflict, except that President Trump is threatening to significantly escalate the conflict if there is no negotiated deal by Tuesday of this week. Beans are starting higher, despite a minor pullback in crude oil this morning
SOYBEAN MEAL
Meal prices were mostly sideways last week and continue to hold the support level of the last 45 days. Speculative funds net sold 8,000 contracts through last Tuesday, bringing the new position to 99,933 contracts, but the market remains vulnerable to fund liquidation if prices drop below last week’s lows. The historic net long over the last 20 years was in 2023 at just over 150,000 contracts.
CORN
There was some carryover minor pressure on corn this morning from moderate weakness in wheat and crude oil. Weekly export sales last Thursday were within the range of estimates and still 3% above USDA’s projected pace.
WHEAT
Wheat took out last week’s low overnight as some beneficial rains fell in the far southern Plains and snow in the northern Plains over the holiday weekend. Little is expected in the Plains this week, but starting this coming weekend, SW Plains rain chances increase for several days in all but far western Kansas and eastern Colorado. Forecast models are finally showing rain potential for the Texas Panhandle as well.
CATTLE
The cattle complex closed higher each day last week and finished on the weekly highs, keeping the bulls in firm control. Cash trade was very strong on Thursday, and that was the main bullish market force. CFTC data showed speculative funds increased their net long in live cattle by 11.6% to 123,742 contracts, a 5-month high. Feeders longs also increased 12.9%.
HOGS
June hogs closed near the lows of the week on Thursday and slightly below the prior week’s gap support at 104.55. Speculative funds decreased their net long position as of mid-last week by 7.2% to an 11-week low of just over 94,000 net long. China continues to warn of oversupply in the hog sector and may look to expand pork exports to reduce the supply burden. US weekly export sales last week were very strong once again, well above the average for the past month.
MILK CLASS III
May Class III milk finished last week with a sizable gain after climbing up to a 9 1/2-month high on Friday.
ENERGIES
May Crude Oil pushed through Monday’s contract highs early Tuesday as the market awaited Trump’s deadline for Iran to open up the Strait of Hormuz by 8:00 PM eastern time tonight. So far, Iran has rejected the cease fire proposal the US offered via Pakistan saying a permanent end to the war was necessary. There was a report that Iran’s Kharg Island was targeted with several strikes.
May Natural Gas fell to its lowest level since January 16 (the day after it put in its 2026 low) early Tuesday but bounced off that level.
DOLLAR INDEX
The USD held at 99.98 as investor attention sits on President Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Investor focus have been centered around price direction in oil as a proxy for developments in Iran.
COCOA
May Cocoa was lower early Tuesday, as the market continued in its narrow trading range. Drier conditions in west Africa this week may provide some support after the generally good growing conditions there in recent weeks.
COFFEE
May Coffee was sharply low early Tuesday and managed to barley take out last week’s low. A brokerage firm projected a large global surplus for 2026/27 based on strong production expected out of Brazil, Vietnam, and Uganda. They conditioned the forecast on how well the Brazilian harvest progresses, which usually begins in May.
COTTON
May Cotton extended its two-month old rally early Tuesday to reach its highest level since last April. Persistent dry conditions in US cotton growing areas have raised concerns about the upcoming crop despite a prospective plantings report last week that came in higher than expected.
SUGAR
May Sugar extended its correction from the March 30 high early Tuesday despite higher crude oil and reduction ins Indian production estimates last week. The market had drawn support from the rally in crude oil on ideas it would encourage cane crushers to focus more on ethanol this season, but much of that may have been baked into the market already.
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold prices slipped, with April COMEX contacts down 0.43% to $4,664 as markets assessed President Trump’s deadline (ending 8 p.m. EST Tuesday) for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, dollar strength and a rise in bond yields continue to act as a headwind on gold prices.
Copper prices are lower, with benchmark three-month copper on the LME down 0.1% at $12,344 earlier in the morning as rising warehouse stocks and anxiety over Tuesday night’s deadline pressure prices.
EQUITIES
US equity index futures are lower as investor anxiety over President Trump’s 48 hour deadline (ending 8 p.m. EST Tuesday) for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz mounts. ISM’s March PMI data for the services sector showed a slight decrease in economic activity for the sector, with the index falling to 54 from 56.1.
INTEREST RATES
Yields are little changed across the curve as markets await tonight’s deadline for Iran. Monday’s ISM services data showed the prices gauge rose to 7.7 points to 70.7 in March, the highest reading since October 2022. Survey respondents noted that higher energy costs are flowing through into airline operations, freight logistics, and energy-intensive service inputs.
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