Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.04-$.05 lower as spreads weaken ahead of the Goldman roll that begins tomorrow. May-26 held a challenge of MA support at yesterday’s low of $4.48 ¼. Support for Dec-26 is at last week’s low of $4.76. Plantings as of April 5th reached 3%, just above the YA pace and 5-year Ave. of 2%. The Reuters poll expects virtually no change in US ending stocks in Thurs. USDA WASDE update, holding near the Mch-26 forecast of 2.127 bil. US corn remains competitively priced in the global marketplace. Tomorrow’s EIA report is expected to show ethanol production rose to 320 mil. gallons LW, up from 316 mil. the previous week. Also little change expected for global stocks. EU imports as of April 5th at 13.58 mmt are down 18% YOY.
SOYBEANS
Prices were lower across the complex with beans down $.06-$.09, meal was off $2-$5 while oil was down 20-30 points. Initial support for May-26 beans is its 50-day MA at $11.51 ¾. Support for Nov-26 is at LW’s low of $11.40. May-26 meal violated support at its 50 and 100 MA’s while slipping to a 3-week low. For now, May-26 oil rejected trade above $.70 lb., the highest in nearly 3 years. Energy prices finished mixed in choppy 2-sided trade as the 8 pm EST deadline to reach a peace agreement with Iran approaches. Pres. Trump has threatened to bomb Iran’s bridges and power plants if an agreement to open the Straits of Hormuz isn’t met. Both countries rejected the other cease-fire proposals yesterday. Crush margins slipped back $.05 to $2.94 ½ bu. while bean oil PV jumped to a new all-time high at 52.8%. The Reuters poll also expects no change in US soybean stocks, holding near the Mch-26 forecast of 350 mil. bu. We are expecting a 15 mil. bu. cut to 335 mil. due to higher crush with no change to exports. US beans remain roughly $50 per ton above Brazilian FOB offers. EU soybean imports as of April 5th at 9.74 mmt are down 8.6% from YA. Meal imports at 13.63 mmt are off 5.5%.
WHEAT
Prices range from $.03 lower in MIAX to $.03 higher in CGO. Early strength was tied to lower than expected US crop ratings, however could not hold as forecasts lean for much needed precipitation across the SW plains. Winter wheat ratings at only 35% G/E were below expectations and a 3-year low, while well below the 48% from YA. Spring wheat plantings at 2% were in line with expectations and just below YA pace and 5-year Ave. at 3%. The Reuters poll shows analysts expect US wheat stocks will slip to 923 mil. bu. down from 931 mil. in Mch-26. We see no change this month. EU soft wheat exports at 18 mmt are up 7.2% from YA.
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