Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
A last-minute agreement between the US and Iran led Pres Trump and his Administration to suspend attacks on Iran’s infrastructure for 2 weeks. The Pres stated over social media “we received a 10-point proposal from Iran and believe it is a workable basis which to negotiate.” As part of the agreement Iran has reopened the Straits of Hormuz triggering a plunge in global energy prices. Spot WTI crude oil is down $20 per barrel at $93.60. Spot RBOB is down $.37 per gallon while HO is off $.78. Agricultural prices are mostly lower with soybean oil and wheat leaders to the downside. Soybean prices have recovered after trading to a 6 week low while soybean meal is moderately higher benefiting from meal/oil spreading. The central Midwest will see a surge in temperatures today before a front later this week users in cooler temperatures and widespread rain. Moderate to heavy rains over the next 7 days stretching from the Southern Plains NE thru the Midwest into the Great Lakes region. Dry in the SE where plantings should accelerate, while lighter precipitation in the N. Plains. Argentina is expected to see a much-needed break from recent heavy rains. Brazil will continue to see a favorable mix of rain and sunshine over the next week. The US $$$ is sharply lower having fallen to a 4-week low. US stock indices are currently 2.5%-3.5% higher.
Corn:
May-26 is $.05 ½ lower at $4.43 ½ while Dec-26 is off $.07 at $4.71. Next support for May-26 is its March low at $4.40 18/4. Support for Dec-26 is at $4.67. The Reuters poll expects virtually no change in US ending stocks in Thurs. USDA WASDE update, holding near the Mch-26 forecast of 2.127 bil. We are looking for a 25 mil. bu. reduction to 2.102 bil bu with exports up 50 mil while usage for ethanol production down 25 mil. Today’s EIA report is expected to show ethanol production rose to 320 mil. gallons LW, up from 316 mil. the previous week.
Soybeans:
May-26 beans are steady at $11.58 ¼ while Nov-26 beans are $.03 lower at $11.48. May-26 meal is up $2.80 at $314.60 while holding within yesterday range. May-26 oil gapped lower trading limit down at one point while currently down $.02 ½ at 67.20. Crush margins slipped $.05 yesterday to $2.94 ½ bu. while bean oil PV jumped to a new all-time high at 52.8%. The Reuters poll also expects no change in US soybean stocks, holding near the Mch-26 forecast of 350 mil. bu. We are expecting a 15 mil. bu. cut to 335 mil. due to higher crush. While energy/war headlines will still drive price volatility the markets attention will gradually shift toward the US planting season and Pres. Trump’s upcoming trip to China. With his trip already pushed back 6-7 week’s I would not expect them to source anymore old crop soybeans from the US but hopefully can count on at least 25 mmt of new crop. Brazil’s Ag. Ministry reports they shipped 14.518 mmt of soybean in March, down 1% YOY.
Wheat:
Prices have plunged $.13-$.20 across the 3 classes. Sharply lower energy prices along with forecasts for needed rains across the S. Plains has triggered the price collapse. CGO July-26 is down $.19 at $5.89 with next support at its 50 day MA at $5.86 ½. KC July-26 is down $.17 ½ at $6.05 ½ with next support at $6.00. Argus raised their 2026 Russian production est. 2.2 mmt to 88.7 mmt, still below the 90.4 mmt from YA. Rusagrotrans estimates Russia will export 3.7 mmt of wheat in April, well above the 2.4 mmt shipped in April-25. The Reuters poll shows analysts expect US wheat stocks will slip to 923 mil. bu. down from 931 mil. in Mch-26. We see no changes this month.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
