Global Ag News For April 9.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Cease-Fire Doesn’t Resolve Fertilizer Issues, Says Teucrium — Market Talk

Grain futures are getting only a limited push from the cease-fire with Iran. That’s because the fighting has already created significant issues for fertilizer availability, says Jake Hanley of Teucrium Trading. “Reopen the Strait of Hormuz tomorrow, and the corn market still has a problem that doesn’t resolve until 2027 at the earliest,” says Hanley in a note. Gridlock at the Strait and damage to natural gas plants in the region won’t be resolved overnight, and farmers are likely to need to pay significantly higher prices to obtain fertilizer–with those that can’t afford it likely needing to ration whatever fertilizer they do have to stretch it for the full growing season.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 6 in SRW, up 7 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/2; Soybeans up 3; Soymeal up $0.40; Soyoil up 0.38.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 12 1/4 in SRW, down 15 in HRW, down 1/5 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/4; Soybeans up 1; Soymeal up $0.20; Soyoil down 1.03.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 30 in SRW, down 33 in HRW, down 2/7 in HRS; Corn is down 8; Soybeans down 6; Soymeal up $0.10; Soyoil down 1.08.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 15.6% in SRW, up 16.7% in HRW, up 9.5% in HRS; Corn is up 2.0%; Soybeans up 13.0%; Soymeal up 6.6%; Soyoil up 41.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 26) Soybeans up 120 yuan; Soymeal up 9; Soyoil down 82; Palm oil down 90; Corn up 6 — Malaysian Palm is up 51.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 51 ringgit (+1.11%) at 4637.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 93 Oats; 641 Corn; 523 Soybeans; 1,536 Soyoil; 197 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 8 were: SRW Wheat down 11,115 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,659, Corn down 8,641, Soybeans up 9,465, Soymeal down 5,787, Soyoil down 972.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 08 APRIL 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: No major changes to the U.S. temperature forecast through two weeks, which calls for widespread warmth across most regions
• SOUTH AMERICA: Warm and relatively dry weather is expected across the Argentina Pampas during the next 10 days
• AUSTRALIA: Widespread dry weather will prevail across Australia during the next 10-15 days, having mixed impacts on wheat and sugarcane prospects
• AFRICA: Favorable wet weather is expected across West Africa’s cocoa regions during the 6-15 day forecast
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) is expected to develop into a strong negative phase event in the coming days and through the next two weeks, which could shake-up Southern Hemisphere weather patterns

 

CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT EL NIÑO EVENT BY THE END OF THIS SUMMER CONTINUE TO RISE

What to Watch:

• All indicators have shifted in favor of a rapid El Niño development by the end of the June-August period
• If the forecast verifies, drought risks this summer could be elevated for corn and soybean in U.S., spring crops in Southeast E.U. and sugarcane in Thailand
• A favorable summer might be in store for grain crops Western E.U., as well as for key cocoa-producing countries in Africa

 

Northern Plains: A system continues to move through the region on Wednesday with scattered showers, and a few more will follow behind it on Thursday. Another system will move through this weekend with more scattered showers into Monday. The frequent rounds of precipitation will improve soil moisture, but colder temperatures are creating more snow and slower rises in soil temperature. Unless the pattern changes, it could be a shorter window for planting this spring.

Central/Southern Plains: Areas in the west have seen much less precipitation out of the more active weather pattern from last week and drought is increasing in some areas again. The pattern does seem to be a bit more favorable for a front to stall out in the region on Thursday and bring chances for showers to many of these western areas through at least early next week. The showers do look like batches of thunderstorms, which will mean some areas will see heavy rain while others are likely to be drier. Mixed improvement should be expected, but not widespread improvement for winter wheat or significant increases in soil moisture for corn and soybean planting. Drought remains a problem despite the active pattern.

Midwest: A system will move through on Wednesday into Thursday and stall a front across where showers may continue into the weekend. The front lifts north this weekend with showers following it and bringing in a burst of warmer air. A system will then bring more scattered showers early next week, providing plenty of opportunity to have good soil moisture for spring planting. However, some areas may receive too much and ponding may be a concern for planting as well. Though temperatures are rising, the 50-degree soil temperature mark is only creeping into southern areas and frequent changes in air temperature will mean a slow progress northward for the rest of the month.

Delta: Though some areas of heavy rain fell over the past weekend, drought is still heavily entrenched in the region. There may be some isolated showers at various times this week, but drier conditions this week should not be favorable for soil moisture. That will make planting and early growth more difficult. Some showers are likely to move through next week, but consistent, heavy rains are not in the forecast.

Brazil: A front brought some heavy rain to southern areas on Tuesday and will provide a brief burst of moderate rain across the central for Wednesday and Thursday. But precipitation will become isolated again after it passes. A similar situation may repeat itself this weekend into early next week. Overall, this is unfavorable for developing safrinha corn as the end of the wet season rainfall is rather disappointing for many areas.

Argentina: A slow-moving front brought widespread precipitation to the country last week, but that is only favorable for the shrinking portion of the corn and soybean crops that were planted late. Early-planted corn and soybeans continue to go through harvest. Another system will move across the north this weekend with more rainfall.

Europe: A couple of smaller systems will move through this week with more focused areas of precipitation, currently across Spain and then for Germany on Thursday. Despite the somewhat drier look this week, most areas of the continent have good soil moisture for winter wheat and early corn planting outside of the northeast, which is drier. Showers may be more widespread this weekend into next week as a system slowly passes through the continent.

Black Sea: A stalled system will continue to produce rounds of showers into the weekend. Soil moisture has slowly been improving since the winter, though it is not ideal in too many areas. The region would like to keep these scattered showers going or see more widespread heavy rains for the second half of April. No concerns are noted though at the moment.

Australia: A few showers are going through southern areas on Wednesday and Thursday, but many areas will stay dry. That is favorable for the remaining cotton and sorghum harvest, but the country would like to see more widespread heavy precipitation for winter wheat and canola planting. Drier conditions are forecast next week as well, discouraging wheat and canola planting.

China: Showers have been missing the North China Plain, which is a little concerning for winter wheat. Precipitation has been very low since last fall. And while global satellites seem to think that soil moisture is favorable there, they may be wrong. A couple of systems will move through this week and next week, but favor more of the canola areas across the south-central than the wheat areas on the North China Plain.

 

The player sheet for 4/8 had funds: net sellers of 10,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 7,000 corn, buyers of 3,500 soymeal, and sellers of 11,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Leading South Korean animal feed group Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased around 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in a private deal late on Wednesday without issuing an international tender
• CORN PURCHASE: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased around 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal late on Wednesday without an international tender being issued
• SOYMEAL PURCHASE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased around 60,000 metric tons of soymeal, European traders said.
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased about 67,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional worldwide origins in an international tender, European traders said.
• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased an estimated 66,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender, European traders said.
• CORN PURCHASES: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal without issuing an international tender, European traders said. Later, MFG purchased around 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a second private deal on Wednesday without issuing an international tender, European traders said.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender, European traders said.
• FEED BARLEY PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grain buyer purchased about 50,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender, European traders said. Traders said there were no immediate indications that a new barley tender will be issued by Jordan, which has been issuing feed barley purchase tenders most weeks in recent months.

PENDING TENDERS

• UREA TENDER: India, the world’s largest urea importer, was looking to purchase 2.5 million metric tons of the key crop nutrient to shore up domestic supplies, which have tightened due to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Bids for the tender must be submitted by April 15.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 65,394 metric tons of rice, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers is April 21.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending April 2.

• Corn est. range 900k – 1,600k tons, with avg of 1,188k
• Soybean est. range 200k – 600k tons, with avg of 388k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 0.2% to 26.053M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 26.161 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.116m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.075m

 

Argentina’s Rosario exchange raises corn forecast to new record

Argentina’s 2025/26 corn harvest should reach a record 67 million metric tons, the Rosario grains exchange said on Wednesday, raising its estimate from a prior 62 million tons thanks to farmers planting more fields with the crop than originally expected.

• The corn forecast would far exceed the previous record of 52.5 million tons set in the 2023/24 season, according to data from the exchange.
• Argentina is the world’s third-largest exporter of the grain.
• “Much more corn was planted than previously thought, adding 420,000 hectares (1.04 million acres) to the April figure,” the exchange said.
• The total area planted with corn for the 2025/26 season is expected to be 10.2 million hectares.
• The exchange also noted that the increase in corn cultivation came at the expense of soybean planting, which saw a reduction of 200,000 hectares, bringing the total area sown with the crop to an estimated 16.2 million hectares.
• Nonetheless, the exchange maintained its harvest estimate for soybeans at 48 million tons due to expected higher yields than previously forecast.

 

Indonesia sets biofuel mandate timeline, all biodiesel users to switch to B50 by 2028

Indonesia’s energy ministry has issued a ministerial decree setting the timeline for the implementation of its biofuel blending mandate, an official said on Wednesday, as it tries to meet its energy transition and self-sufficiency targets.

• It said that by 2028, all biodiesel users will shift to the B50 standard, which includes 50% palm oil-based fuel.
• Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer, originally planned to implement a mandatory blend of “at least” 40% palm-based biodiesel blended with 60% conventional diesel in 2026, according to the decree, which was signed on March 3.
• Indonesia has since said it will launch a programme to raise the mandatory blending rate for palm-based biodiesel from 40% to 50%, a standard known as B50, starting from July 1.
• The early implementation of B50 was part of a wider government plan to mitigate risks arising from the Iran war.
• Indonesia plans to keep the palm oil blending rate at 50% for subsidised diesel in 2027, but unsubsidised diesel could stay at 40%, depending on the capacity available. B50 will be the standard for all users by 2028, the decree said.
• “Through more comprehensive regulations and clear phasing, we want to ensure that biofuel utilisation can be implemented optimally, while still considering the readiness of raw materials, infrastructure, and industrial support,” said director general of renewable energy Eniya Listiani Dewi in a statement on Wednesday.
• The energy ministry will issue a new ministerial decree to allocate the biodiesel required to meet the B50 goal in the second half of this year, Eniya said. It had previously allocated 15.65 million kilolitres for 2026 to meet the B40 standard.
• Indonesia also plans to mix non-subsidised gasoline with at least 5% ethanol in Java, the country’s most populated island, over the 2026-2027 period, and raise the proportion to 10% by 2028.
• Southeast Asia’s largest economy, Indonesia, is also planning to roll out a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandate starting from 2027.
• From next year, flights operating in Jakarta’s Soekarno Hatta International Airport and Bali’s I Gusti Ngurah Rai International Airport, two of Indonesia’s busiest airports, will use fuel consisting of 1% SAF.

 

Indonesia Plans ‘Big Investments’ in Bio Jet Fuels, Prabowo Says

The country plans “big investments” to build refineries that produce jet fuel from palm oil and used cooking oil, President Prabowo Subianto says in a speech on Thursday.

• Refinery will help reduce fuel imports alongside a push to install 100GW of solar power in two years, he says during the inauguration of VKTR Teknologi’s electric vehicle factory in Magelang, Central Java province
  • NOTE: Flights from Jakarta and Bali are expected to use a minimal 1% bio jet fuel mix starting 2027 and 5% starting 2029, according to an energy ministry decree
  • NOTE: Pertamina in February broke ground on expanding the Cilacap refinery in Central Java to boost bio jet fuel output
• Indonesia is forming a company to produce electric sedans, and aims to begin mass production in 2028, Prabowo says
• Plans to close 13 of Listrik Negara’s diesel-fired power plants to cut fuel imports

 

Brazil weighs fast-tracking biodiesel tests as diesel prices spike

Brazil’s government is looking at ways to accelerate testing of higher biodiesel blends in diesel, aiming to reach a conclusion this year, the head of a soy crushers association said on Wednesday, amid a spike in fuel prices due to the Iran war.

The measure could boost soybean demand in the world’s largest producer of the oilseed, most of which is shipped to China for animal feed. Brazil’s biofuels industry has seized on the disruptions to oil and gas supplies in the Middle East as a chance to push for higher mandated blends of soy-based diesel and ethanol in gasoline.

Andre Nassar, head of industry group Abiove, told Reuters the Mines and Energy Ministry would decide this week whether to hire more laboratories to evaluate the technical performance of blends of up to 20% biodiesel, versus the current 15% mandate.

 

India raises fertiliser subsidy as US-Iran war lifts global prices

India on Wednesday raised its nutrient-based subsidy for summer-sown crops by 11.6% from a year earlier to shield farmers from rising global fertiliser prices following the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

The cabinet approved a nutrient-based subsidy scheme worth 415.34 billion rupees ($4.50 billion) for the summer crop season, Information Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said.

The government aims to ensure that farmers continue to get a 50-kg bag of diammonium phosphate (DAP) at the current price of 1,350 rupees despite the rally in global prices, Vaishnaw said.

India, where farming is a mainstay, imports fertilisers such as urea, DAP and muriate of potash, as well as liquefied natural gas, a key feedstock for urea production.

The Middle East accounts for roughly half of India’s DAP imports, with Saudi Arabia the largest supplier.

Global DAP prices have risen about 20% since the conflict in the Middle East disrupted fertiliser supplies from the region..

India issued a tender on Saturday to import 2.5 million metric tons of urea to shore up domestic supplies, which have tightened due to the conflict.

India imports urea and DAP mainly from Oman, Russia, China, Saudi Arabia and Morocco.

 

Corn farmers in Sinaloa are demanding fair prices and threatening to set up more roadblocks

In an interview on Heraldo Radio’s “Sergio y Lupita” program, Martín Lim Cisneros, a producer from the Culiacán Valley , announced that corn farmers will carry out staggered traffic blockades at the La Platanera or El Pisal toll booth as part of a national strike spanning 28 states across the country. The measure is a response to dissatisfaction with low purchase prices and insufficient federal compensation, which fails to cover production costs.

Although the federal government authorized the payment of 750 pesos per ton of corn to producers who were still awaiting this support, Martín Lim Cisneros noted that this aid is insufficient to resolve the current situation. The producer explained that processors are offering 4,500 pesos per ton, a figure that falls short of what farmers invest to grow the grain.

“Those so-called guaranteed prices… the processors are offering us 4,500 pesos per ton. But I invested 5,600 pesos to produce a ton.”

This difference of 1,100 pesos per ton represents a direct loss for farmers, who see the viability of their livelihoods threatened. The government’s stance—which, as mentioned, grants guaranteed prices only to small-scale producers—does not meet the demands of the sector as a whole.

Threats of roadblocks in Sinaloa and a national strike

The resistance of corn producers is part of a “national strike” involving 28 states across the country. Martín Lim Cisneros confirmed that, in his region, protest actions will take place with staggered traffic blockades at strategic points such as the La Platanera or El Pisal toll booths. These actions aim to pressure the authorities and the industry to secure fairer prices that ensure the sustainability of corn production.

“We will continue to resist as part of the national strike across all 28 states of the Republic, and here we will take the necessary steps—specifically where I am, at the La Platanera or El Pisal checkpoint—by implementing staggered traffic blockades.”

The farmers’ mobilization underscores the urgency of finding economic solutions that guarantee the profitability of the harvest and prevent further damage to the country’s primary sector.

 

Mosaic to idle Brazil phosphate plants in cost-cutting push

Mosaic said on Wednesday it will idle two phosphate facilities in Brazil, cut jobs and reduce annual output by about 1 million tonnes, as the fertilizer producer moves to curb costs, redeploy capital and pursue the sale of assets.

The U.S.-based company will begin idling and demobilising its Araxa Mining and Chemical Complex and related mining activities at its Patrocinio Complex, leading to workforce reductions at both sites.

Mosaic did not disclose how many employees would be affected.

Brazil is a key production hub for Mosaic, which has been trimming its portfolio and capital spending after periods of oversupply weighed on fertilizer markets and returns.

Mosaic sold its Taquari-Vassouras potash mine and the idled Patos de Minas phosphate mining unit in Brazil in 2025.

The company plans to pursue the sale of its Araxa assets, while continuing development work on a separate niobium metals project at Patrocinio.

“We believe idling the facilities and pursuing a potential sale is the right path forward,” Mosaic CEO Bruce Bodine said on Wednesday. “This decision reflects Mosaic’s continued focus on discipline around capital allocation and returns.”

The impact on adjusted core profit is expected to be limited due to elevated sulphur prices, excluding one-off costs, the company said.

Following completion of a potential deal, Mosaic expects annual capital expenditure to decline by about $20 million to $30 million, with operating expenses forecast to fall by roughly $70 million to $80 million.

The company expects to record a pre‑tax charge of between $350 million and $400 million in the first quarter of 2026.

 

Brazil sets monthly record for pork exports in March; poultry shipments rise

Brazil posted record monthly shipments of pork in March, helped by demand in Asia, while poultry exports rose despite the impacts of the Iran war, trade data showed on Wednesday.

Brazil exported 153,800 metric tons of fresh and processed pork last month, a 32.2% increase year-on-year, and above the previous record high of 151,600 tons last September, according to official data gathered by local pork and poultry lobby ABPA.

Brazil is one of the world’s largest pork exporters.

“Global demand for Brazilian pork remains high,” ABPA president Ricardo Santin said in a statement, mentioning markets such as the Philippines and Japan, both of which grew their imports of Brazilian pork by more than 80% in March.

Revenue from Brazilian pork exports also reached a monthly record high of $361.6 million in March, a 30.1% hike from a year earlier, according to ABPA.

The Brazilian pork exports are expected in the coming months to maintain the performance seen in the beginning of 2026, Santin said. From January to March, pork volume shipped by the country rose 16% year-on-year, to 392,200 tons, the data showed.

Brazilian poultry exports rose 6% last month from a year earlier, to 504,300 tons, according to ABPA, despite the effects of the war in the Middle East, which had received about 30% of the chicken meat exported by the country in 2025.

The growth in poultry shipments by Brazil, the world’s largest exporter of the meat, came in part from a recovery of China imports, the data showed, after a decline in 2025 due to an outbreak of bird flu in the South American nation.

 

 

 

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