ADMIS News
COCOA
July Cocoa was higher early Tuesday following a modest selloff on Monday. The market remains inside the relatively narrow range of the past two months, but it has managed a slight uptrend. Ivory Coast port arrivals were estimated at 28,000 metric tons for the week ending April 26, up from 20,000 the previous week and 25,000 a year ago. The five year average for the week is 36,000 tons. Cumulative arrivals since the marketing year began on October 1 have reached 1.510 million tons, up from 1.505 million at this time last year and 1.354 million at this time in 2024, but it was below the five year average of 1.694 million for this point in the season. Ivory Coast farmers interviewed by Reuters expressed concern about the below average rains last week and were concerned that the persistent dry spells could prevent the March-to-August mid-crop from finishing strong. World Weather Inc. said Ivory Coast saw a few showers over the weekend but most were very brief and light with poor coverage of measurable rain. A routine occurrence of showers and thunderstorms will impact cocoa areas from Ivory Coast through Ghana and Benin to Nigeria and Cameroon during the next week.
COTTON
July Cotton was higher early Tuesday but had yet to take out Monday’s high. The market has been consolidating its recent gains over the past four session. Drought conditions over most of the US cotton belt continue to provide support. The weekly Crop Progress report on Monday afternoon showed 16% of the US cotton crop was planted as of April 26, up from 11% the previous week and 14% a year ago. The five-year average for this date is 13%. Texas was 20% planted, the same as a year ago and just above the five-year average at 19%. Arkansas was 17% planted versus a five-year average of 6%, and Mississippi was 15% planted versus 4% on average. Higher oil prices lend support. Last week’s US Drought Monitor indicated that an area representing 98% of US cotton production was experiencing drought as of April 21. West Texas, the Delta and the southeast are expected to see rain this week. The moisture could spark a bigger correction.
COFFEE
July Coffee was higher early Tuesday following a sharp, selloff from the Friday’s four-week high. The market has been in a consolidation mode for the two months, finding support from tight old crop supplies but limited by the expected strong harvest from Brazil. Traders have cited Brazil farmer and exporter selling at the high last week. The arabica harvest is expected to begin next month. World Weather Inc. said scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred in many coffee production areas in central Africa (excluding Ivory Coast), Central America, southern Mexico and Indonesia over the weekend. In Brazil, Parana and southwestern Sao Paulo coffee should see showers and thunderstorms continue periodically into Wednesday of this week, but the primary growing state of Minas Gerais is expected to be dry or mostly dry into next week.
SUGAR
July Sugar was higher early Tuesday and was back in the vicinity of Monday’s two week high. Crude oil was higher overnight, and that lent support to sugar on the idea that high energy prices will encourage cane crushers, especially those in Brazil, to focus more on ethanol production at the expense of sugar. The Brazil’s government said last week that a proposal to increase ethanol blending in gasoline from 30% to 32% will be evaluated by the country’s energy council in the coming week. Unica said on Monday that it expects the change to increase demand for anhydrous ethanol by about 1 billion liters. El Nino could eventually lower global sugar production, but World Weather Inc. suggested in a report last week that the relatively quick onset of the event does not necessarily mean that the typical climate affects may take some time to develop, perhaps not until the fourth quarter of 2026 or the first quarter of 2027 in some areas. El Nino can bring dry conditions to key sugar growing areas on Thailand and India. India has already lowered its expectations for this year’s monsoon to below normal.
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