Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.01-$.02 higher while spreads were mixed ahead of FND tomorrow for May-26 contracts. Deliveries are expected to be light with only 173 contracts registered for delivery with the CME. July-26 and Dec-26 both traded into new highs for the month. July-26 tested the upper end of its $4.50-$4.80 range. For weeks we’ve suggested energy prices would likely determine the directional breakout of this range which is clearly leaning higher. Dec-26 closed higher for a 9th consecutive session, however held below $5. Heavy rains from earlier this week will likely not slow corn plantings for too long with the dryer outlook. Taiwan reportedly bought 65k mt of US feed corn for July shipment. Ethanol production fell to 297 mil. gallons LW, down from 306 mil. the previous week, and 3% below YA. Production was below expectations and the lowest in 3 months. There was 99 mil. bu. of corn used in the production process, or 14.2 mil. bu. per day, below the 15.5 needed to reach the USDA forecast of 5.6 bil. Ethanol stocks slumped to 25.9 mil. barrels, still above the 25.4 mb from YA. Implied gasoline usage rose by .5% LW to 9.104 tbd while steady with YA demand. Tomorrow’s combined export sales for old and new crops are expected to range from 25-90 mil. bu. Demand for US corn should continue to hold up well as it remains competitively priced in the global marketplace.
SOYBEANS
Prices were sharply mixed with beans up $.04-$.09, meal ranged from $1-$5 lower while oil surged late closing over $.01 ½ – $.02 higher. Bean spreads firmed while product spreads were mostly lower. Delivery registrations are 523 contracts for soybeans, 0 meal and 914 contracts for soybean oil. July-26 beans traded to their highest level in a week while nearing the upper end of its $11.55-$12 range. Nov-26 beans held just below its contract high at $11.74 ¼. New contracts highs in bean oil with the spot contracts soaring to a fresh 3 ½ year high. Support for July-26 meal is at $319.50. After jumping out to new all-time highs in early trade, spot board crush margins finished unchanged at $3.67 ½ bu. while soybean oil PV closed at a new record high at 53.4%. Higher energy costs continue to drive inflation fears as the US/Iran conflict remains at a standoff. New contract highs for June-26 WTI crude. So far, the EU has detected 6 soybean meal shipments testing positive for a non-approved GMO in 2026. Four were from Argentina and 2 from Brazil. 2 of the shipments from Argentina and 1 from Brazil have been withdrawn. YTD EU meal imports for the 2024/25 MY from Brazil have reached 9.9 mmt while another 6.9 mmt from Argentina and 930k tons from Ukraine. As soybean oil prices have surged, UCO imports from China have become more attractive. Two cargoes carrying 339k barrels of UCO have arrived in Port Arthur TX within the last month, the largest imports so far this year. More is expected as the gap between US bean oil and UCO has widened. Rendered beef tallow prices have also spiked. EPA data showing biodiesel and RD production along with feedstocks usage from Feb-26 is due out tomorrow.
WHEAT
Prices sold off late, particularly for the spot May-25 contracts ahead of FND. Prices ranged from $.07 lower in CGO and KC May-26 contracts to $.03 higher in KC July-26. Dryness across the SW US plains remains a concern. Early strength saw spot CGO trade to a 14-month high, spot KC hitting a 22-month high, while MIAX July-26 traded into new contract highs. CGO July-26 premium to July-26 corn traded out to a 23-month high at $1.92 bu. before backing up. Registrations for delivery with the CME stand at 34 contracts for SRW (CGO) and 22 for HRW (KC). The USDA attache projects Canadian production in 2026/27 MY at 36.2 mmt, down about 10% from YA on slightly lower acres and a return to normal yields. They also project Australian production at 29 mmt, down 19% from YA. Weather impacts from El Nino may present downside risk to this forecast. Combine exports from both countries are expected to slip 3.7 mmt from YA. Export sales are expected to range from 0-18 mil. bu.
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