Global Ag News For May 1.2026

TOP HEADLINES

Fertilizer Use Already Falling as War Drives Up Costs, Yara Says

A surge in fertilizer costs is already eroding demand for crop nutrients, risking dramatic consequences for countries that can’t afford to subsidize their farming industry, according to producer Yara International ASA.

Prices of Egyptian urea, a key fertilizer benchmark, have jumped about 80% since war broke out in the Middle East, snarling supplies from the major producing region. The rally has outpaced gains in crop prices, squeezing farmers’ margins and forcing them to make “difficult decisions,” Yara Chief Executive Officer Svein Tore Holsether said in an interview.

“Demand rationing is happening,” he said in London on Thursday. “In a demand-driven market, it has to drop because of the availability of the product.”

The rocketing costs have had a far-reaching impact. In France, corn growers’ group AGPM has warned plantings could drop by about 15% year-on-year. Meanwhile, 10,000 miles away in Australia, higher input costs are shaping what farmers plant, potentially impacting global supplies of wheat and other crops.

To be sure, some farmers in Europe can afford to cut their fertilizer applications by about 4% without significantly affecting yields because the soil is in fairly good health, according to Yara’s calculations. It’s a different picture in other regions, most notably Africa, where the use of fertilizers is low, spelling “dramatic consequences” for crops, food supplies and prices, Holsether said.

Countries that are most in need are often beholden to market prices and unable to subsidize fertilizer purchases by farmers, he said.

“There has to be rationing in terms of who’s able to pay and how much are they able to pay for fertilizer,” Holsether said. That “will lead to some farmers not being able to afford it.”

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1/4 in SRW, down 1/2 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans up 5 1/2; Soymeal up $0.80; Soyoil up 0.56.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 19 1/2 in SRW, up 23 1/4 in HRW, up 1/6 in HRS; Corn is up 13 1/4; Soybeans up 22 3/4; Soymeal up $1.10; Soyoil up 3.57.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 24.7% in SRW, up 31.7% in HRW, up 21.0% in HRS; Corn is up 5.6%; Soybeans up 15.0%; Soymeal up 10.0%; Soyoil up 58.9%.

China and Malaysian markets are closed for holiday.

There were changes in registrations (220 Corn, 367 Soybeans, 342 Soyoil). Registration total: 434 SRW Wheat contracts; 208 Oats; 393 Corn; 890 Soybeans; 1,506 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 583 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 30 were: SRW Wheat up 664 contracts, HRW Wheat up 5,998, Corn up 9,485, Soybeans up 11,395, Soymeal down 54, Soyoil up 4,842.

 

Northern Plains: Isolated showers may move through into early next week, but it should be largely dry. Temperatures will largely remain below normal through the first half of May, producing more consistent frosts and freezes. No damage is expected since planting has been slow for corn and soybeans, but the colder temperatures could cause slower planting or growth for wheat that has already been planted.

Central/Southern Plains: Batches of showers and thunderstorms continue for Thursday, which is getting into the drier southwestern wheat areas, but with low coverage and amounts. However, a system will move across Texas on Friday with more of a shield of showers that should mean widespread precipitation there and against the High Plains in Colorado. The widespread rain will improve soil moisture for some areas of the southwestern Plains, though western Kansas and parts of Oklahoma are still extremely dry. The drought is deep and intense, and will take a long time to undo. Another storm system is looking likely for next Tuesday and Wednesday, which may be helpful as well as another system for late next week or weekend. The more active weather may bring some showers to drier wheat areas, though many fear it is too late as we get into May. Cold temperatures at times will be creating frosts through next week if skies clear out and winds calm down, which may cause damage to winter wheat and emerging soybeans.

Midwest: Showers will continue across the region through Monday, but with lower coverage and amounts than we have seen recently. That should allow some wet areas to drain and planting to pick up. However, it will also be cold through next week with potential for frosts, primarily across the north if skies clear out and winds calm down. Another big system will be possible in the middle of next week that could bring more areas of heavy rain, keeping soil moisture well-stocked.

Delta: Periods of heavy rain have been moving through this week and continue into early Saturday before getting a break. The rain is more than welcome, easing the extreme drought in the region. However, rainfall deficits are incredibly large and will take much more rain to significantly reduce. There will be more chances next week and beyond to continue the trend of reducing drought.

Canadian Prairies: Cold air sitting is moderating a bit over the next few days, but more cold air is forecast to move in next week. The cold is causing issues this season as snow is sticking around later and soils are still relatively cold. This is causing a short planting window for the season. Soil moisture is at least very good, which is favorable for once the crop is planted.

Brazil: A stalled front across the south has been producing scattered showers for Parana in the south this week. Some showers will continue there into Monday. Central Brazil has gotten very hot and dry as the wet season has come to an end a couple of weeks early. The country will see if fronts moving up from Argentina can be of some help for occasional rainfall, but soil moisture will be running out soon, a poor sign for safrinha corn.

Argentina: Crops continue to mature and harvest is increasing across the country. Occasional rain may disrupt the maturing process as well as harvest at times, but conditions are overall favorable. Soil moisture has been falling a bit ahead of the winter wheat planting, but conditions are still favorable.

Europe: Dry conditions in the northeast have not been favorable for winter wheat and more rain is needed. Scattered showers continue across western Europe and should push eastward next week, hitting some of the driest areas with scattered showers. Conditions for wheat development and corn planting are overall favorable for most of the continent.

Black Sea: Cooler temperatures have been around all week, but frosts will mainly occur over the less developed places in the north. Southern areas that are farther along may have some damage, but the overall prospect for widespread frost and freeze damage is low. Occasional rain showers and the clouds that come with it should have been limiting the overall low temperatures from falling too much. The cold could discourage corn planting, however. Temperatures should moderate next week, though the showers are likely to continue. Some soggy areas in the east could use a break from the recent persistent rains, but western areas could use more rain.

 

The player sheet for 4/30 had funds: net sellers of 8,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 3,500 corn, sellers of 500 soybeans, sellers of 4,500 soymeal, and buyers of 4,500 soyoil.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 65,394 tons of rice, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers was April 21.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued an international tender to purchase about 20,000 tons of rice sourced from the United States and Vietnam, European traders said. The deadline for submissions of price offers in the tender was April 28. Results of the tender may not be known for some weeks after price submissions, traders said.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soy, Corn and Wheat for Week Ending April 23

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 199k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Colombia with 420k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef for Week Ending April 23

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending April 23, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 26.1k tons of the 46.3k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

Canada Oilseed crushing and major grain deliveries statistics, March 2026

Oilseed processors crushed 1.1 million tonnes of canola in March, up 15.3% from February 2026 and up 7.1% from March 2025. Oil production reached 468.8 thousand tonnes in March 2026, while meal production was 643.1 thousand tonnes.

 

SovEcon Boosts Russian Wheat-Export Outlook on Stronger Demand

SovEcon raised its Russian wheat-export estimates for this and next season due to improving demand, it says in an emailed statement.

• 2025-26 exports seen at 47.4m tons, up by 0.9m tons from the previous forecast
• 2026-27 exports seen at 45.2m tons, up 1.4m tons from earlier estimates
• Cites strong shipment pace, better Russian crop prospects
• Sees “good” crop prospects in southern Russia

 

Argentine Soybean, Corn Estimates April 30: Exchange (Table)

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2025-26 soybean and corn production estimates maintained
• Soybean harvest advanced to 18.3% complete vs 10.2% the previous week

 

Vessel carrying grain Ukraine says stolen by Russia will not unload in Israel, Kyiv says

• Vessel with alleged stolen grain left Israeli waters, Kyiv says
• Ukraine urges global actors not to buy grain from areas occupied by Russia, warns of legal risks
• Israel says Ukraine has not provided evidence grain was stolen, importer declines comment
• Vessel left on its own, Israel says

A vessel carrying grain that Ukraine says was stolen from areas occupied by Russia will not unload in Israel, Ukraine said on Thursday, after Kyiv requested Israel to seize the cargo.

Ukraine’s prosecutor general, Ruslan Kravchenko, said on the Telegram app that the vessel, Panormitis, left Israel’s territorial waters and departed into neutral waters following “a range of procedural measures taken by Ukraine”.

“On the basis of the materials provided by the Ukrainian side within the framework of international legal cooperation, the competent Israeli authorities have begun to process the request,” he said.

Israel’s foreign ministry said, however, that Ukraine’s request for legal assistance, submitted late on Tuesday, “contained significant factual gaps and did not include any supporting evidence”.

In the meantime, the ministry said, it was informed that the vessel that was supposed to enter the port next week decided to depart from Israel’s territorial waters.

The Panama-flagged vessel’s manager was not immediately available for comment.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, writing on Telegram, said Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha had presented a report calling for “a more systematic” campaign against vessels carrying grain from occupied areas of the country.

“We will systematically act against the shadow grain fleet, in the same way we act against the shadow oil fleet,” he wrote.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Record crop, but strong demand underpins prices

Cepea, 30 – Soybean prices remain firm in Brazil despite a record crop estimated at 180 million tons. Both domestic and international demand are strong, particularly from the crushing industry, while by-product prices are also rising, supporting price increases. Internationally, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and higher oil prices reinforce the upward trend in Brazil, as this scenario boosts biodiesel competitiveness and, consequently, demand for soybean oil, the main feedstock for the biofuel.

Soybean meal futures have also been rising in the United States, driven by expectations of stronger demand from the European Union. There are indications of restrictions on shipments from South America following the detection of unauthorized genetically modified products, creating uncertainty for exports from Brazil and Argentina, major global suppliers of soybean meal.

As soybean meal and oil prices have been increasing more than soybean values, the profitability of the crushing industry continues to grow.

In Brazil, considering prices in São Paulo, crush margin dropped 0.8% in the week, but registered, in April, the highest monthly average since August 2024, at BRL 661.01 per ton.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) and the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) closed at BRL 129.10 per 60-kg bag and at BRL 122.58 per bag, respectively, on April 29, up 1.7% from April 23. The US dollar remained stable in the same period, closing at BRL 5.007. Ample supply supports liquidity but limits more significant price increases. Despite firm demand, the prospect of a record crop keeps the market balanced.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soybean prices increased by 1.4% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 0.9% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) between April 23 and 29.

The Brazilian value of soy oil (12% ICMS) rose by 1.8% from April 23-29. As for soybean meal, on the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, prices decreased by 0.4% in the same comparison.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Limited trading activity; prices show slight fluctuations

Cepea, 30 – Only a few corn trades have been recorded this week in major producing and trading regions of Brazil. Buyers have been relying on previously contracted inventories and are focused on the summer crop harvest, which may increase domestic availability. Meanwhile, sellers continue to limit supply, concerned about uneven weather conditions in recent days. In this context, prices have shown slight variations, with regional supply and demand dynamics prevailing.

In São Paulo, sellers are firm about quotations. From April 23-29, corn prices rose by 1.3% in Mogiana and by 0.9% in Sorocabana. The ESALQ/BM&F Bovespa Index for corn prices (Campinas/SP) upped 0.8% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 66.91 per 60-kg bag on April 29.

In the South and Central-West, on the other hand, prices declined amid the progress of the summer crop harvest in Southern Brazil, high ending stocks, and the ongoing soybean harvest in the Central-West. This scenario has made producers more willing to sell corn.

Between April 23 and 29, corn prices dropped by 0.2% in Passo Fundo (RS), 0.4% in Campos Novos (SC), 1.1% in the West of Paraná and 2% in Sorriso (MT).

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn values decreased by 0.7% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 0.2% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) from April 23-29.

 

Argentina raises sunflower seed output to 6.6 million tons for 2025/26, exchange says

Argentina’s 2025/26 sunflower seed crop is expected to reach 6.6 million metric tonnes, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BdeC) said on Thursday, up 200,000 tons from its previous estimate.

The exchange attributed the revision to higher-than-expected yields during the final stages of the harvest. It had previously forecast a 6.4 million-tonne crop.

Argentina is a major exporter of sunflower oil.

 

Cargill Plans $150 Million Upgrade for Sunflower Processing Site

Cargill Inc. is investing $150 million to upgrade a sunflower processing site in France to tap into growing demand for high-value protein meal, company says in Thursday statement.

• The upgrade in processing capacity will allow the site to shift from lower protein sunflower meal to high- and super-high protein meal, Cargill says
• Construction is expected to begin at the site in Saint-Nazaire in November
  • Commissioning is planned for March 2029
• The site currently employs 75 people, and the project is expected to create seven jobs
• “This strategic investment strengthens our ability to connect French farmers to growing demand for high-value protein meal,” Alexis Cazin president of Cargill’s Agriculture and Trading group in EMEA, says in statement

 

EU’s 2026-27 Grain Production Forecast Trimmed on Barley, Corn

The EU’s total grain production is now estimated at 277.6m tons in the 2026-27 season, down from a March forecast of 278.1m tons, the European Commission said in its latest outlook.

• The projection is 0.9% above the five-year average, but down 4.5% year-on-year
• Soft wheat forecast was increased to 127.3m tons, up from 125.9m tons in March
• Barley outlook was revised to 52.9m tons, down from 54.7m tons in March
• The corn projection was also lowered slightly by 0.1m tons
  • For the 2025-2026 season, the estimate of total EU grain production was revised up to 290.6 million tons, up 14.4% year-on-year

 

Record US biofuel targets to test biodiesel industry after slow year

• EPA mandates require 60% biomass-based diesel production increase, risking credit market volatility if unmet
• Industry leaders warn supply, feedstock, and capacity challenges may hinder meeting targets
• Analysts and EIA forecast potential deficits, with actual output lagging behind operable capacity

The U.S. biodiesel industry, still recovering from one of its most difficult years, will have a hard time ramping up production fast enough this year to meet the Environmental Protection Agency’s most ambitious biofuel blending mandates on record.

With fuel prices surging during the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, the EPA set its ambitious biofuel targets in late March. To meet the record target, companies that process soybeans into biodiesel must boost production by over 60% this year. Some industry bodies and biofuel experts doubt they will succeed, yet failure could further stoke the rise in diesel prices.

Farmers and agricultural groups have long lobbied Washington seeking higher biofuel mandates. U.S. soybean prices swooned last year, with exports down as China switched to Latin American crops in response to President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Farmers are a prized political constituency for Trump and his Republican Party in their campaign to maintain thin majorities in Congress in November’s midterm elections.

The EPA set biodiesel and renewable diesel volume requirements of 5.4 billion gallons for 2026 and 5.7 billion for 2027, up from 3.35 billion last year.

 

US House passes farm bill after scrapping pesticide language opposed by MAHA

• House bill maintains SNAP cuts, faces criticism from Democrats and anti-hunger groups
• Farm groups welcome bill for stability, but some say it lacks aid for struggling farmers
• MAHA activists succeed in blocking pesticide lawsuit shield

WASHINGTON, April 30 (Reuters) – The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday passed its version of a five-year farm bill after stripping a provision opposed by the “Make America Healthy Again” movement that would have blocked some lawsuits against pesticide makers.

The House passage shows progress for the long-stalled, sweeping legislation, which funds agricultural and food aid programs, but it will still need to pass the Senate before it can advance to President Donald Trump’s desk.

Historically bipartisan, the farm bill has faced hurdles since the prior bill expired in 2023, as Republicans and Democrats in both chambers battle over its provisions, which range from farm subsidies to food stamps.

The House version passed on Thursday extends much of the framework of the prior bill with some changes, like maintaining cuts to the food stamp program included in Trump’s tax and spending bill passed last year.

The bill passed by 224 votes to 200, with Republicans picking up 14 Democratic votes.

“It is clearer every day that farm country needs updated policy that reflects current challenges, and the 2026 farm bill fills that gap,” said House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn ‘GT’ Thompson in a statement.

Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman said in a statement that he would release that chamber’s farm bill text in the coming weeks.

FARMERS UNDER STRAIN

Farm groups largely cheered the passage of the bill, which they said could provide some stability for farmers facing the pressures of higher fuel and fertilizer costs from the U.S. war in Iran.

“Important updates to research and conservation, as well as increased loan limits and clarity on interstate commerce, will help farmers survive today’s challenges and give them the tools to thrive in the future,” said American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall in a statement.

But some Democrats argued the bill did not go far enough for farmers.

“The so-called farm bill that passed the House today does nothing to resolve high input costs, lost markets, surging food prices or provide a single penny in economic assistance to struggling family farmers,” said Angie Craig, the top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee.

Anti-hunger groups criticized the bill for failing to overturn $187 billion in cuts to SNAP passed in Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill.

The bill did not include a provision backed by some Republican legislators to allow year-round sales of the higher-ethanol gasoline blend E15. The House is expected to vote on a standalone E15 bill on May 13.

A MAHA VICTORY

The bill also did not include a provision that would have shielded pesticide companies from some lawsuits over the safety of their products, after MAHA activists lobbied aggressively against the provision ahead of the vote.

Many supporters of MAHA, which backs Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., oppose pesticide use on food crops.

Hundreds of MAHA activists ralliedat the Supreme Court on Monday as pesticide maker Bayer BAYGn.DE appeared for oral arguments in its effort to end thousands of lawsuits that allege its Roundup weedkiller causes cancer.

The amendment passed by 280 votes to 142, with bipartisan support.

“Lawmakers caved to anti-science MAHA activists instead of standing with those who grow our food,” said Elizabeth Burns-Thompson, executive director of the Bayer-backed Modern Ag Alliance, in a statement.

 

First US Pseudorabies Case Found in Commercial Swine Since 2004

Pseudorabies virus was detected in a US commercial swine facility for the first time since 2004, the US Department of Agriculture said in a Thursday notice.

• Antibodies to the pseudorabies virus were detected in a small commercial swine facility in Iowa as part of routine USDA testing
• The five affected boars came from an outdoor facility in Texas
• Pseudorabies, a viral livestock disease, was eradicated from the commercial swine industry in 2004, but is still found in feral swine populations in the US
• There “may be limited, short-term impacts” on exports of US swine and swine genetics, but the disease poses no risk to consumer health or the safety of the commercial pork supply: USDA

 

China to Purchase Frozen Pork for Commercial Reserves

China will guide local authorities to use fiscal funds to purchase frozen pork for commercial reserves, according to a statement from the agriculture ministry.

• The move aims to promote stable market operations

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 638k tons in the week ending April 25 from 720k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 2.9% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 29.3% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $18.15 per short ton, an increase of $0.04 from the previous week

 

Kalshi Bows to Agriculture Industry Pushback on Trading Hours

Kalshi Inc. has agreed to limit trading hours on new financial contracts tied to crops like corn and wheat after facing pushback from the agriculture industry and derivatives exchanges.

Trading on Kalshi, the most popular US prediction market, generally happens around the clock, seven days a week, but the company has told groups representing the agriculture industry that for certain products it will stick to the same hours as traditional exchanges.

An industry group representing derivatives exchanges, traders and commodities producers, the Commodity Markets Council, organized two calls with Kalshi to express its concerns about the startup’s new agriculture contracts, according to people familiar with the discussions who asked not to be named because the conversations were private. Kalshi announced in mid-April that it planned to create a new commodities trading hub with contracts tied to everything from corn and soybeans to lithium and natural gas.

“The agriculture community is critically important, and we value their input,” John Bivona, head of government affairs at Kalshi, said on Thursday. “After listening to their feedback, we’re in the process of limiting trading hours on commodity markets to traditional hours. We’re grateful for their engagement and look forward to continuing conversations as we bring more products to the space.”

The CMC declined to comment on the conversations.

Kalshi has exploded in popularity over the last year by offering wagers on elections, sports and other public events. Sports has accounted for a significant majority of the trading. But it has been moving further into products that already exist on traditional financial exchanges, including wagers on the price of oil and gas, and others connected to stock indexes and company earnings.

The startup has shown a willingness to defend its turf when facing opposition to its novel product offerings. It is currently battling in court with several states that have said the company is running an unlicensed gambling operation.

Derivatives exchanges have expressed concern about the rise of prediction markets in the past, but also responded to the competitive pressure by creating their own event-betting products.

The CME Group Inc., for instance, now operates a prediction market app with the gambling company FanDuel. But the company’s chief executive officer, Terry Duffy, has complained about the ease with which the new platforms have been able to list new contracts.

Traditional exchanges and the agriculture industry were surprised when Kalshi announced its broad push into commodities and organized calls that included agriculture traders, exchange operators and representatives from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the top US derivatives regulator, according to some of the people.

CMC members include Chevron, Cargill Inc., BP Plc and Vitol, as well as exchanges like Intercontinental Exchange Inc. and CME Group, and trading houses like Louis Dreyfus Co.

The group reached out to Kalshi and organized the conversations last week, the people said.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has supported the expansion of event betting exchanges into new areas, but he’s said recently that the agency is drafting new rules and guidelines for the nascent industry.

“Chairman Selig has made clear in public remarks that 24/7 trading is not a one-size-fits-all and may not be suitable for all markets,” a CFTC spokesperson said Thursday in a statement to Bloomberg. “Chairman Selig looks forward to continuing to work with all stakeholders on this matter.”

Kalshi’s willingness to limit some trading hours has not dispensed with other questions the industry has about the startup’s push into commodities, the people said. The industry, they said, is also concerned with other issues, such as the risk of splitting up trading liquidity on what are already somewhat thin markets, and the public disclosure of trading positions, something traditional exchanges have to provide as part of the weekly Commitment of Traders report.

The CMC and other agriculture groups are planning to submit comments to the CFTC as part of the regulator’s broader consultation on prediction markets, the people said.

Contracts tied to agricultural commodities follow different hours depending on the underlying commodity. Corn contracts, for example, stop trading at 1:20 p.m. in Chicago. Kalshi told the industry it will adopt the existing hours for its products.

The first derivatives contracts in the US were agriculture products launched in the 1800s.

Kalshi will not limit trading hours on the other commodities contracts it offers outside the agricultural realm, according to a person familiar with the matter. Trading on existing products, like oil and precious metals, currently happens around the clock.

 

 

 

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