Written Commentary
CORN
Corn: Prices were $.04-$.05 higher largely in sympathy with surging wheat values. Prices held below their recent highs. The new crop demand estimates will have to prove themselves over time with the added competition from South America.
- US 2025/26 stocks up 15 mil. to 2.142 bil. slightly above expectations
- 2025/26 Global stocks up 2 mmt to 297 mmt
- 2025/26 Argentine production up 7 mmt to 59 mmt, Brazil up 3 mmt to 135 mmt
- The 2025/26 Ave. Farm prices increased $.05 to $4.15 bu.
- US 2026 Production 15.995 bil. bu. down 126 mil. from YA, in line with expectations
- Trendline yields held at 183 bpa
- US 2026/27 stocks at 1.957 bil. in line with expectations
- 2026/27 exports at 3.150 bil. bu. up 50 mil. from the Feb-26 Outlook
- The 2026/27 Ave. Farm price estimated at $4.40 per bu.
- Global 2026/27 stocks at 277.5 mmt below expectations
SOYBEANS
Prices were higher across the complex with beans up $.10-$.14, meal was $2-$4 higher while oil was up over $.01 ½ per lb. Spreads firmed across the comoplex. July-26 beans closed into a fresh 2 month high with next resistance at $12.50. New 2 ½ year high for Nov-26 beans. Crush margins firmed $.11 ½ to $3.24 ½ bu. with bean oil PV improving to 53.4%. Attention now shifts to Pres. Trump’s trip to Beijing later this week with NOPA crush data on Friday.
- US 2025/26 stocks down 10 mil. to 340 mil. Exports down 10 mil. with crush up 20 mil.
- Bean oil usage in biofuel production up 200 mil. lbs. to 14.2 bil.
- Meal exports up 400k tons to 19,800 thousand tons
- The 2025/26 Ave. Farm Price was raised $.10 to $10.40
- 2025/26 Global stocks little changed at 125 mmt
- US 2026 Production 4.435 bil. bu. up 173 mil. from YA, in line with expectations
- US 2026/27 stocks at 310 mil. bu., at the low end of expectations and a 4-year low
- The 2026/27 Ave. Farm Price was pegged at $11.40, a 3 year high
- 2026/27 crush forecast at 2.750 bil. bu. up 95 mil. from Feb-26 Outlook pushing toward industry capacity. Exports cut 70 mil. to 1.630 bil.
- Global 2026/27 stocks at 124.5 mmt below expectations
WHEAT
Synthetically July-26 KC futures were trading near $7.36 bu. up roughly $.05 from the limit up close. Expanded limits of $.70 apply to both CGO and KC futures tomorrow. Next resistance for spot KC futures is the May-24 high near $7.46. A crop tour this week in Kansas will provide further clues of the damage inflicted to this years HRW crop from drought and frost. Today’s winter wheat production estimate is the lowest I see with just over 30 years of data readily available. Chicago wheat traded $2 bu. over corn for the first time in 2 years.
- US 2025/26 stocks down 3 mil. to 935 mil. in line with expectations
- 2025/26 Global stocks down 4 mmt to 279.2 mmt, well below expectations
- The 2025/26 Ave. Farm Price up $.05 to $5.00 bu.
- US All Wheat 2026 Production at 1.561 bil. down 424 mil. from YA and 174 mil. below expectation
- Winter wheat production at 1.048 bil. down 354 mil. from YA and 151 mil. below expectations
- By class production HRW – 515 mil. vs. 630 expected, SRW – 301 mil. vs. 336 expected and white 232 mil. in line with expectations
- Harvested/planted acres at 68% the 2nd lowest in past decade
- US 2026/27 stocks at 762 mil. mil. bu. were 71 mil. below expectations
- The 2026/27 Ave. Farm Price was pegged at $6.50 bu, a 3 year high
- Global 2026/27 stocks at 275 mmt were 6 mmt below expecations
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