ADMIS News
COCOA
July Cocoa was sharply lower early Wednesday, perhaps on disappointment that the market failed to fill a gap from January 20 at 4783 this week. The recent rally appeared to be driven in part by short covering, as the decline in open interest during the period attests. Other factors supporting the market included concerns over upcoming global production due to high fertilizer prices and the threat of El Nino.
A Bloomberg report said Ghana’s cocoa deliveries to warehouses are running ahead of expectations, mainly because of beans being smuggled from Ivory Coast to fetch higher prices. Deliveries reached about 651,000 metric tons from the start of the season in August through the end of April, already exceeding their forecast of 650,000 for the entire season. The deliveries could put additional financial strain on Ghana’s regulator, COCOBOD, which would have to buy more beans than planned and budgeted for. Some Ghanan farmers have gone unpaid from deliveries made last year, raising concerns about their ability to pay for inputs to upcoming crops. But this could also mean that COCOBO will need to lower its offering prices as well. Some farmers in Ivory Coast have not been paid for beans sold during the main crop, fueling protests and discouragement that could weigh on the next harvest. This problems appear to be localized, for now.
COFFEE
July Coffee was higher early Wednesday following a swift recovery nine-month lows on Monday. The market has been under pressure by expectations for a strong Brazilian crop, but it has avoid a steep selloff as old crop supplies remain tight and harvest pressure has yet to appear. The Brazilian exporters group Cecafe said Brazil exported 2.76 million bags of green coffee in April, which is down 1.3% from a year earlier. Arabica exports totaled 2.26 million bags, down 15.9%, and robusta exports totaled 497,109, up 374%. The robusta harvest has begun. Dealers told Reuters that Brazil harvest was beginning to gather pace. Cepea said in a note that some Brazilian areas still have a high share of green berries in the trees, which could delay harvest operations in those places. The Brazilian real was slightly lower on Tuesday but was still hovering near two year highs. The strong currency reduces the incentive for producers to price their beans.
COTTON
July Cotton was a bit higher early Wednesday following a lower close of Tuesday after first reaching new contract highs. The USDA supply/demand report come in at the bullish end of expectations for US and world production and ending stocks. The world stocks/use ratio is estimated at 59.0% versus 64.7% in 2025/26 and is the lowest since 2020/21. The US stocks/use ratio is 28.1%, down from 32.4% last year and the lowest since 2021/22. US production was 600,000 bales lower than 2025/26, Brazil 2026/27 production was forecast at 17.50 million bales, a drop of 2 million from 2025/26, and China’s was 33.50 versus 35.80 last year. India was forecast at 24.00 versus 23.80 in 2025/26. World Weather Inc. does not see not much relief coming from the drought in the US. The Delta and southeaster will experience restricted rainfall during the next ten days to two weeks leading to the return of dry soil and eventually some crop moisture stress. West Texas has low precipitation potential for the next week to ten days. The trade may be hoping for some sort of pledge by China to purchase US agricultural products to come out of the meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi this week.
SUGAR
July Sugar reached its highest level since May 6 early Wednesday and was approaching a gap at 15.35-15.37 from the open that day. The higher crude oil trend this week lends support to sugar on ideas it will encourage more cane crushing for ethanol. Yet another analyst has tightened its global supply outlook for 2026/27 based on the ethanol demand expectations and the forecast for El Nino this summer. Analysts are now looking at a global deficit for 2026/27 after a surplus the previous year. The USDA WASDE report on Tuesday put US 2026/27 sugar production at 8.810 million short tons, down from 9.239 million in 2025/26. Beet sugar production was forecast at 4.722 million, down from 5.021 million last year, and cane sugar production was put at 4.088 from 4.218 in 2025/26. Imports were increased to 3.260 million tons from 2.653 million in 2025/26.
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