Written Commentary
CORN
Prices plunged $.12-$.14 seemingly disappointed in no mention of potential corn sales to China. Spreads also weakened as many posted new lows. July-26 sliced through its 50-day MA with next support at this month’s low at $4.61. Yesterday’s ethanol production came in above expectations at 318 mil. gallons, however was below the pace needed to reach the USDA corn usage forecast of 5.60 bil. bu. The US House passed legislation yesterday to allow the year-round sale of E-15. The measure squeaked by at 218-203 while it now moves to the Senate where it needs a 60% vote to pass. The Rosario Grain Exchange raised their Argentine production forecast another 1 mmt to 68 mmt vs. the revised USDA forecast of 59 mmt. Conab raised their Brazilian production forecast .6 mmt to 140.2 mmt, vs. the revised USDA est. of 135 mmt. Export sales at 27 mil. bu. were a 4 month low and well below expectations. YTD commitments at 3.061 bil. bu. are up 25% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of up 15.5%. Commitments represent 93% of the USDA forecast, above the historical Ave. of 88%. Colombia, Japan and Mexico all bought 7-9 mil. bu. while cancellations to unknown totaled 18.5 mil.
SOYBEANS
Prices were sharply lower with beans down $.24-$.36, meal was $6 lower while spreads weakened while product spreads were mixed. July-26 beans closed right at its 50-day MA after briefly dipping below its May low of $11.82 ½. Support for Nov-26 beans is at $11.64 ¾. July-26 oil rejected trade into new lows for the month while an inside day for July-26 meal. Comments from US Treasurery Sec. Bessent that China’s existing purchase agreement for US soybeans “are all taken care of” triggered an avalance of selling as speculators pare back from record long holdings. US weather also leans bearish. Crush margins shot up $.16 to $3.49 bu. NOPA data tomorrow is expected to show members processed 214 mil. bu. in April-26, down from 226 mil. in March, however up from 190 mil. April-25. Oil stocks are expected to fall 4% to 1.95 bil. lbs. The RGE raised their Argentine soybean production forecast 2 mmt to 50 mmt, vs. the USDA est. of 48 mmt. Conab raised their Brazilian production forecast nearly 1 mmt to 180.1 mmt in line with the USDA estimate. Export sales at 7 mil. bu. were below expectations. Old crop sales were a new MY low. YTD commitments at 1.434 bil. are down 19% from YA in line with the revised USDA forecast. Commitments to China have reached 11.9 mmt with another 1.2 mmt to unknown. Meal commitments have reached 15 mmt, up 18% YOY vs. the revised USDA forecast of up 8%. Bean oil cancellations of 1 mil. lbs. lowered YTD commitments to 811 mil. lbs. down 63% YOY vs. USDA forecast of down 52%. The USDA also announced a flash sale of 252k mt of soybean to an unknown buyer, 120k for 25/26 MY while 132k for 26/27.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.17 to $.20 lower. CGO July-26 was down $.17 ½ to $6.58, KC July-26 was $.19 ½ lower at $7.05 ¼, while MIAX July-26 was off $.17 ¼ at $7.02 ½. Day 2 of the Kansas wheat tour estimated average yields of 39.3 bpa, vs. 53.5 bpa YA. The tours final yield est. for the state was 38.9 bpa, below the 5-year Ave. of 45.5 and the lowest since 2023. Their production forecast at 218 mil. bu. would imply their harvested acres at roughly 5.6 mil. acres. The USDA pegged Kansas yields at 37 bpa with production at 214.6 mil. bu. Their harvested acreage est. at 5.8 mil. represents 83% of the planted acres, below the historical average of 92%. The RGE is forecasting Argentine production in 26/27 will range from 18-19 mmt, well below the 29.5 mmt in 25/26. The USDA est. for 25/26 production is 27.9 mmt and 21 mmt for 26/27. Conab lowered their Brazilian production forecast .2 mmt to 6.4 mmt vs. the USDA est. of 6.7 mmt. US exports at 13 mil. bu. were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments at 915 mil. bu. are up 16% from YA, vs. the revised USDA forecast of up 10%.
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