Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
The screen is green this AM with sharp gains across the agricultural space as optimism grows that China will buy a significant amount of US Ag goods. Over the weekend the Trump Administration revealed a fact sheet which stated China would buy $17 bil. in agricultural goods over the next 3 years (prorated for 2026) in addition to the 25 mmt of US soybeans they pledged to purchase over the next 3 MY’s. This would take total annual US Ag. purchases to $28-$30 bil., the highest in 4 years. China also suggested they would drop existing tariffs on US Ag. goods. Corn, soybeans and wheat are all sharply higher, pretty much wiping out Friday’s lower trade. Energy prices are mixed to slightly higher as tensions in the Middle East remain elevated. Yesterday Pres. Trump warned Iran to “get moving” on negotiations to end the war or “there won’t be anything left.” WTI June-26 crude oil is down $.20 barrel near $105.20. Spot RBOB is steady while HO is $.02 higher. Weekend rains were heaviest in SE Nebraska along with NC Missouri and SC Iow. 100+ degree readings were common in the SW plains. Good rains are expected across the nation’s midsection this week including the S. plains. Lighter amounts across the N. Midwest. Cool/dry this week in Argentina, favorable for harvest activities. Weekend rains in Brazil limited to E. Parana and NW Mato Grosso. Rains this week will favor the interior south while hot/dry for the central and NE regions. The US $$ is moderately higher, stretching out to a 6-week high. US stock indices are lower.
Corn:
July-26 is up $.14 ¼ at $4.70 while Dec-26 is $.12 higher at $4.93. Inside trade for July-26 as prices are near the midpoint of last week’s range. After Friday’s trade we have the MM long position down to 245k contracts. No date has been set for the US Senate to vote on E-15.
Soybeans:
July-26 and Nov-26 beans are up $.22 each at $11.99 and $11.92 ¾ respectively. July-26 meal is up $3.70 at $338 while July-26 oil is up 82 points at 74.70. Resistance for July-26 beans is at last week’s high of $12.35. Crush margins fell back $.06 at $3.65 bu. NOPA crush at 212 mil. bu. was slightly below the Ave. est. of 214 mil. however, within the range of guesses. While down 6.2% from March-26, it was well above the 190 mil. from April-25. Bean oil stocks at 1.947 were a touch below the average guess of 1.954 and down 4.5% from April. Implied census crush at 215 mil. bu. brings YTD crush to 1.776 bil. up 8.2% from YA vs. the revised USDA forecast of up 7.6%. To reach the USDA est. crush May through Aug. will need to reach 854 mil. bu. vs. 804 YA.
Wheat:
Prices range from $.14 to $.21 higher. CGO July-26 is up $.20 ½ at $6.56 ½, KC July-26 is up $.14 at $7.02 while MIAX July-26 is $.14 higher at $6.99 ½. Inside trade across all 3 classes.
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