Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Lower trade across the Ag space overnight as traders await the weekly export sales data. Energy prices have bounced after the head of the UAE state oil firm stated that full oil flows throught the Strait of Hormuz would not return to normal until the first half of 2027 even if the conflict ended now. This comes after yesterday’s lower trade triggered by Pres. Trump suggesting negotiations with Iran on a peace agreement are in the “final stages”. WTI July-26 crude oil is up $2.30 a barrel near $100.55. Spot RBOB is up $.01 per gallon while HO is $.03 higher. Markets will continue to monitor signs of demand, or lack thereof, from China. Speculative traders have been moderate to heavy sellers across the Ag. space after massive buying on Monday. The past 24 hour saw heavy rains stretch the Gulf coast through the Ohio valley and ECB. Lighter amounts in W. TX and the WCB. Heavy rains will continue to impact the Gulf states and Southern midwest through the Holiday weekend. Lighter amounts for northern plains with only scattered rains for the Great Lakes region. Week 2 of the outlook shows above normal temperatures for much of the nation’s midsection with normal to above normal rains. Harvest conditions to remain favorable in Argentina. In Brazil still hot and dry for the central and NE regions while only scattered rains in the interior south. The US $$ is slightly higher while holding within yesterday’s range. US stock indices are lower.
Corn:
July-26 and Dec-26 are both $.02 ½ lower at $4.63 ¼ and $4.86 ¾ respectively. Initial support for July is at this month’s low of $4.55. Support for December at $4.80. Yesterday’s EIA data showed ethanol production improved to 327 mil. gallons up from 318 mil. the previous week, however was below the pace needed to reach the USDA corn usage est. for a 5th consecutive week. No date has been set for the US Senate to vote on E-15. Export sales are expected to range from 38-75 mil. bu. Friday’s COF report is expected to show cattle inventories as of May 1st at 11.536 mil. head, up 1.4% from YA. Placements are expected to rise 3% with marketings down 9.5%. Prospects for Chinese buying for now are being more than offset by favorable US weather.
Soybeans:
July-26 beans are down $.02 at $11.97 ¾ while Nov-26 is $.03 lower at $11.90 ½. July-26 meal is down $1 at $330 while July-26 oil is down 25 points at 74.41. July-26 beans bounced off its 50-day MA overnight at $11.91. Support for Nov-26 is at $11.64 ¼. Crush margins backed up another $.03 overnight at $3.46 ½ bu. Export sales are expected to range from 6-24 mil. bu. of soybeans, 200-550k tons of meal and -5-12k tons of bean oil. US new crop commitments remain historically low. US Gulf FOB offer premium over Brazilian soybeans is down to $.35 bu. for Sept-26 shipment, while still more than $1 over Argentine offers. BAGE to update Argentine harvest progress later today.
Wheat:
Prices are $.02 to $.05 lower across the 3 classes. CGO July-26 is down $.04 at $6.56 ½, KC July-26 is off $.05 at $6.93 ¾ while MIAX July-26 is down $.03 at $6.91 ½. CGO July-26 continues to hold nearly $2 above July-26 corn. It would appear US wheat is least likely to benefit from the Chinese trade agreement with US prices uncompetitive in the global marketplace. The Illinois Wheat Association 1 day crop tour projected an average yield of 102.8 bpa, just below YA results of 106 bpa. Their findings are well above the official 2026 USDA forecasts last week at 84 bpa, which was just below last year’s record yield of 88 bpa.
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