Written Commentary
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold: June COMEX contacts fell nearly 2% overnight, breaking below the psychological $4,500 level despite a softer dollar and treasury yields as markets continue to assess the US-Iran outlook ahead of tomorrow’s PCE inflation data. PCE inflation is expected to come in at 3.8% YoY, with the core measurement up 3.3% YoY, while headline spending will be driven higher by gasoline prices. Tomorrow’s data is likely to offer little reprieve to broader inflation concerns, leaving further focus to US-Iran talks for guidance on market direction. However, lower oil prices should also ease market expectations over Fed policy tightening and offer some reprieve to gold prices. Risk sentiment remains constructive overall, with a lower dollar and Treasury yields alongside brent oil prices that have fallen to $95 a barrel.
Silver: Silver futures are down 2.5% to $74.74.
BASE METALS
Copper: Copper prices rose to their highest level since mid-May before falling lower as lower oil prices eased inflation concerns, though the US-Iran outlook remained cloudy. Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.2% to $13,597 after hitting $13,746. In China, data overnight showed industrial profits grew at the fastest pace since November 2023 last month, while a stronger yuan supported Chinese buyers. Also, the recent rally in AI-related equities has reinforced the view that demand for industrial metals remains intact, making today’s drop in prices appear to be a pause rather than a sustained move downwards. On the supply front, available copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses fell by 2,500 tons overnight, while COMEX copper stocks saw inflows. LME on-warrant copper stocks are at 271,575 tons, lowest since mid-March.
Zinc: Zinc 0.1% to $3,535.
Aluminum: Aluminum rose lost 0.3% to $3,663.
Tin: Tin lost 0.2% to $54,650.
Lead: Lead gained 0.1% to $2,017.
Nickel: Nickel fell 0.1% to $18,950.
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