Written Commentary
BASE METALS
Copper: Copper prices on the LME and COMEX rose as LME data showed that warehouse levels fell, as traders continue to look ahead to the end of June for the Trump administration’s decision over a potential tariff on copper.
Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.6% at $13,594; COMEX copper rose 1.5% to $6.38. Despite Friday’s selloff pulling copper lower, potential US tariffs and declining LME inventory levels continue to offer underlying support for the metal. Available stocks in LME-registered warehouses are at 230,975 tons, the lowest since February 24. Falling inventories continue to lower the discount of the LME cash copper contract to the three-month benchmark. Meanwhile, the COMEX premium continues to attract copper flows to the US, with US warehouses sitting at 584,722 tons. In China, copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the SHFE fell 3% on Friday, showing signs of solid demand despite higher prices, which Chinese traders have typically shown heightened sensitivity to.
The Department of Commerce is due to make a recommendation to President Trump on copper tariffs by the end of the month, potentially opening the door for more shipments to the US, which would raise prices further if the tariffs do take effect. However, no policy action could see prices and premiums come under pressure.
Zinc: Zinc was down 0.2% to $3,524.
Aluminum: Aluminum eased 0.1% to $3,589.
Tin: Tin fell 1.4% to $52,195.
Lead: Lead fell 0.4% to $1,996.
Nickel: Nickel slipped 0.3% to $18,530.
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold: August gold contracts moved 0.24% lower to $4,355, still under pressure from May’s nonfarm payrolls figures, which bolstered the Fed’s position to raise rates. Payrolls rose +172,000 in May, essentially in line with the upwardly revised April gain of +179,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, unchanged from April and within the narrow 4.3%–4.5% range it has occupied since July 2025. The report included meaningful upward revisions, adding a combined +93,000 jobs to the prior two months and materially improving the picture of spring labor market momentum. Following the string of strong payrolls data, the Fed remains well positioned to combat the surge in inflation, having more room to hike rates if necessary. Supportive of gold today is the announcement from Iran’s military that it has ceased strikes against Israel, which has spurred a lower dollar and a small relief rally in the equities. Still, the overhang from Friday’s payroll report is likely to lead to a consolidation in the metal ahead of Wednesday’s inflation data, which offers a downside risk event if inflation continues to surge. In that event, Fed rate hike expectations would increase, further pressuring gold. The upside for gold would be a well-contained core reading and only a modest increase in headline inflation.
For gold, reduced geopolitical uncertainty will direct risk-on flows away from the dollar, while lower oil prices should ease inflation fears. The larger macro environment remains challenging as inflationary concerns remain present amid supply chain issues related to the conflict. Gold has broken support from the $4,500 level, which could present a solid buying opportunity with structural support expected to come from central bank purchasing amid lower prices.
Silver: Silver futures are down 0.75% to 68.55
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