Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were mixed and generally within $.01 of unchanged. Spreads were slightly firmer after making new lows in early trade. July-26 traded to a new contract low before recovering while Dec-26 reached a 10-month low. Overall price movement was limited as speculative selling slowed while favorable US weather limited price gains. There is a gap on the weekly bar chart from Sept-25 that would require July to trade down to $4.05 ¼ to fill. Traders expect little change in corn stocks (old & new crop) and new crop production in Thursday’s USDA updates. The USDA announced a flash sale of 103k mt (40k – 25/26 MY, 63k – 26/27) of corn to Japan. Export inspections at 75 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and above the 58 mil. bu. needed per week to reach the USDA est. YTD inspections at 2.515 bil. are up 27% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 16%. Ag-Rural reports Brazil’s 2nd crop harvest has reached 4.4% vs. 2% YA while also lowering their production forecast .9 mmt to 108.2 mmt.
SOYBEANS
Prices across the complex were mostly lower. Beans were down $.02-$.06, meal was off $2-$6 while oil ranged from 10 points lower to 44 higher. Bean and meal spreads weakened while oil spreads firmed. July-26 beans reached a fresh 4-month low while Nov-26 carved out a 3-month low. July-26 meal traded to a 4-month low with next support at $297.80. July-26 oil traded to a 5-week low before recovering. After collapsing $.27 on Friday, board crush margins were off another $.02 today to $3.70 ½ bu. After raising crush 20 mil. last month and lowering exports 10 mil. No changes expected for 2026 production or stocks. The USDA announced a flash sale of 264k mt of new crop soybeans to an unknown buyer. China…. ? US FOB offers are competitive or below those from Brazil for Sept-26 forward. Soybean inspections at 15 mil. bu. were in line with expectations and in line with the amount needed per week to reach the USDA forecast of 1.530 bil. bu. YTD inspections at 1.325 bil. are down 20% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 16%. China, Egypt, Mexico and Japan all took 2-5 mil. bu.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from steady to $.09 higher. CGO July-26 was up $.03 ¼ at $5.83 ¼, KC July-26 was up $.09 at $6.29 ¾ while MIAX July-26 was steady at $6.19 ½. CGO and MIAX July-26 both slipped to a 3-month low before recovering. Heavy rains across portions of the WW growing areas may contribute to quality issues. Russian media is reporting the Novorossiysk Grain Plant in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea area is operating normally despite Ukrainian drone attacks. IKAR is forecasting Russian wheat exports in June will be no higher than 2.5 mmt, vs. 3.4 mmt in May. They are also reporting their nearby export price fell $3 last week to $242/mt.
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