ADMIS News
COFFEE
July Coffee inched below last week’s 18-month low on Tuesday but was back higher early Wednesday. The market is consolidating after selling off last week on harvest pressure from Brazil. Forecasted rain this week may slow harvest and crop maturation. Temperatures will become cooler than usual, but there is no risk of damaging cold through the first part of next week. JM Smucker Co. said it planned to lower coffee prices next year as the cost comes down. Smucker executives said their forecast for next year was designed to be “prudent,” given the turmoil in the Middle East and the cautiousness in consumer spending.
COCOA
July Cocoa was lower early Wednesday and was just holding support around the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. Ample rainfall in west Africa last week has boosted expectations for the mid-crop. Support comes from concerns that El Nino will bring drier condition to west Africa, but that may not be seen until the end of the third quarter at the earliest. Dry conditions could come to Indonesia sooner, and Ecuador could see too much rain. Most of this is speculation at this point. Ivory Coast port arrivals were strong last week at 33,000 metric tons versus 22,000 the previous week and 18,000 a year ago. Cumulative arrivals have reached 1.822 million tons, up from 1.558 million a year ago and the highest since 2022/23. Arrivals are gradually approaching the five-year average at 1.834 million. As of Tuesday, World Weather Inc. was expecting a routine occurrence of rain and thunderstorms from Ivory Coast through Ghana and Benin to Nigeria. Amount were expected to vary greatly from one location to another with most of it light to moderate, but most areas would eventually be impacted.
COTTON
December Cotton was slightly higher early Wednesday after falling to its lowest level since April 9 on Tuesday. The market was hovering in the lower end of Tuesdays range. Tuesday’s decline took the market within striking distance of the 0.618 retracement of the rally from the December contract low to May contract high. The outlook for this year’s crop has certainly improved with the arrival of timely rainfall, though west Texas and parts of the southeast still need more.
SUGAR
July Sugar was lower early Wednesday, managing to find initial support at the May 28 low. Weakness in crude oil markets on Tuesday may have inspired some of the selling, but oil prices were back higher early Wednesday off the latest series of strikes by Iran and the US. Reports on Tuesday that Brazilian ethanol prices had slipped undermined support for sugar, as higher ethanol production has been one of the underlying support factors this year for the sugar market. Another factor is the potential for smaller cane crops with El Nino expected to reduce rainfall in India and Thailand. In May, various analysts and trading firms had a range of forecasts for the 2026/27 global balance from a net deficit of 4.3 million metric tons to net surplus of 1.4 million. World Weather Inc. said Java and Sumatra, Indonesia should get greater rain in the next ten days, which would help improve the dry conditions that have developed there recently. They expect India’s monsoon performance to remain poor for another week with some increase in rainfall in the June 17-23 period. The head of the Ukrainian sugar union said the nation’s 2026 white sugar output could fall by a one-third this year to around 1.2 million metric tons, due to a smaller sowing area and poor weather conditions.
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