Written Commentary
USDA WASDE SUPPLY/DEMAND HIGHLIGHTS
Relative to expectations I find today’s USDA date neutral to bearish for corn, neutral to friendly for wheat while neutral for soybeans.
Corn:
- 2025/26 ending stocks up 3 mil. bu. to 2.145 bil. in line with expectations
- Exports up 25 mil., usage for ethanol down 25 mil., while imports up 3
- 2025/26 Global stocks jumped 6.4 mmt to 303.4 mmt
- Argentine production up 2 mmt, Brazil up 3 mmt
- As expected no change to 2026 US production holding at 15.995 bil.
- Ending stocks up 3 mil. to 1.960 bil. due to higher carry-in supplies
- 2026/27 Global stocks up nearly 4 mmt to 281.2 mmt vs. expectations of up 1 mmt
Soybeans:
- 2025/26 ending stocks unchanged at 340 mil. bu. in line with expectations
- Exports down 20 mil. offset by 20 mil. bu. increase in crush
- Soybean oil usage for biofuels up 350 mil. lbs. to 14.55 bil. absorbing higher supplies
- Meal exports and domestic usage up 450k tons
- Argentine production up 2 mmt to 50 mmt, mostly offset by higher usage
- As expected no change to 2026 US production holding at 4.435 bil.
- 2026/27 Ending stocks unchanged at 310 mil.
- 2026/27 Global stocks little changed at 124.9 mmt in line with expectations
Wheat:
- 2025/26 ending stocks unchanged at 935 mil. bu. in line with expectations
- Global stocks up .8 mmt to 279.95 mmt
- 2026 US all-wheat production down 18 mil. to 1.543 bil., 12 mil. below expectations
- Winter wheat production down 18 mil. to 1.030 bil.
- HRW production down 18 mil. to 497 mil. SRW down 1 mil. to 300, white up 1 to 233 mil.
- 2026/27 ending stocks at 744 mil. bu. were 21 mil. below expectations
- Global 2026/27 stocks up .4 mmt to 275.4 mmt, slightly above expectations
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