Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.06-$.07 higher closing near session highs in 2-sided trade. Spreads also firmed late closing slighter firmer. Support for July-26 is at $4.05, a gap on the weekly chart from last Sept-25 with resistance is at $4.37. Tomorrow’s COF report is expected to show cattle inventories at 11.726 mil. head, up 2.5% YOY. Ethanol production slipped to 324 mil. gallons last week. Production was below expectations while down less than 1% from YA. There was 108 mil. bu. of corn used in the production process, or 15.45 mil. bu. per day, below the 15.75 needed to reach the revised USDA forecast of 5.575 bil. bu. In the MY to date there has been 4.315 bil. bu. used, or 15.14 mbd, an annualized pace of 5.526 bil. Ethanol stocks held steady at 24.5 mil. barrels, above YA at 24.1 mb. As we expected, the USDA cut their corn usage est. 25 mil. bu. in last week’s WASDE report. Implied gasoline usage rose 5.5% LW to 9.212 tbd, however was still down 1% YOY. Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range from 45-100 mil. bu.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed with beans up $.02-$.03, meal was steady to $1 lower while oil was off 90-140 points. July-26 and Nov-26 beans both traded to 2-week highs before backing up. July-26 oil fell to a 7-week low as speculative traders continue to shed market length. Heavy rains across the Gulf coast in the past 24 hours while moderate rains across the central and N. Midwest. Heavy rain will continue to impact the Gulf coast along with the central and ECB through early next week with lighter amounts for the far WCB. Crush margins were pummeled once again down another $.17 to $3.25 ½ per bu., down nearly $1 from the peak earlier this month. The USDA announced a flash sale of 372k mt (13.6 mil. bu.) to an unknown buyer with 60k for the 25/26 MY and 312k for the 26/27 MY. US FOB offers at the Gulf remain at a slight discount to Brazil while fresh demand from China will likely be limited to state owned entities given the 10% reciprocal tariff on US imports. Tomorrow’s export sales are expected to range from 14-28 mil. bu. of soybeans, 200-600k tons of meal and -2-15k tons of oil. Speculative buying yesterday in soybeans took the MM long position back up to 120k contracts with meal at 56.6k. Selling in soybean oil took their long holdings down to 120k contracts. O.I. in soybeans and meal fell by under 1k contracts for each while in oil it was down just over 5.5k contracts. Anec raised their forecast for Brazilian soybean exports in June to 15.3 mmt, up from their previous forecast of 14.4 mmt.
WHEAT
Prices ranged from $.13-$.19 higher across the 3 classes closing near session highs. CGO July-26 is up $.16 ¾ at $6.12 ¾ trading to a fresh 2-week high. Next resistance is the 50-day MA at $6.17 ¾. Coming into today we had MM’s still short 72k contracts of SRW wheat. KC July-26 was $.18 ¾ higher at $6.52 ½ also stretching out to a 2-week high. Next resistance is the 50-day MA at $6.62 ¼. MIAX July-26 was up $.13 ¼ at $6.25 ½. Forecasts for heavy rains continue to threaten the quality of the SRW crop while also delaying harvest. South Korea reportedly bought 60k mt of feed wheat from either the EU or the Black Sea region. Price executed was just under $278/mt CF for Aug/Sept shipment. The mayor of Novorossiysk, a key Russian port city along the Black Sea, reports they were under heavy drone attack overnight.
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