ADMIS News
COCOA
September Cocoa was lower early Tuesday but inside Monday’s range, as the market tries to determine whether the setback from last week’s highs was a correction or and indicator of a top. The onset of El Nino has raised concerns about the 2026/27 crops, but the remainder of the 2025/26 mid crop appears to be in good shape. Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals were estimated at 22,000 metric tons for the week ending July 12, down from 24,000 the previous week but up from 12,000 for the same week last year and above the five year average of 15,600. Cumulative arrivals since the marketing year began in October have reached 1.956 million tons, up from 1.640 million at this time a year ago and the highest for this point in the season since 2022/23. The five year average is 1.923 million. Ivory Coast farmers interviewed by Reuters said below average rains last week helped dry damp soils but more sunny spell are needed to boost the September-February main crop. Some farmers lamented the relatively cool conditions and lack of sunshine.
COFFEE
September Coffee was higher early Tuesday but had yet to move outside Monday’s range, as the market continued to consolidate after reaching its highest level since October last week. The nearby contract came very close to reaching the 0.618 recovery of the decline from the 2025 all time high to the June low last week, and that level is offering some formidable resistance at 364.45. The “Super” El Nino in its initial stages appears to be threatening robusta production in Indonesia but possibly Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, as well. Drier conditions in Brazil are welcome following some extremely heavy rains in June that slowed the harvest and damaged some of the crop.
COTTON
December Cotton was lower early Tuesday but inside Monday’s range up day. Dry conditions continue to take their toll on Texas crop conditions, which has an outsize effect on the US crop as a whole. Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report showed 44% of the US cotton crop was rated good/excellent as of July 12, down from 46% the previous week and 54% a year ago and below the five-year average for this date at 48%. Not a huge difference from the average, but they have gone from well above average and year-ago levels to below in just three weeks. Texas was 30% G/E, down from 36% last week, 45% a year ago and the five-year average of 35%. Georgia is close to average at 62% G/E versus 64% on average, Arkansas and Missouri are doing well at 82% and 84% G/E versus 75% and 62% on average, but Mississippi is hurting at only 39% G/E versus 61% on average.
SUGAR
October Sugar was near unchanged early Tuesday and inside Monday’s range. The rally in crude oil this week has had little impact on the sugar market, despite the implications of higher ethanol usage and therefore a greater focus on crushing cane for ethanol as opposed to sugar. The effect that the “Super El Nino” will have on global sugar production in the coming year has remains a background support factor with the expectations of drier conditions in India and Thailand. This summer’s record heat in Europe may have damaged the beet crops there permanently.
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