Written Commentary
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold: December gold contracts rose to their highest level since mid-June in the wake of July’s hiring report, which saw yields and the dollar drop. July’s labor report saw a surprise -23,000 reading alongside downward revisions to May and June’s report. Revised May (+63,000), June (+20,000), and now July’s (−23,000) total add just +60,000 jobs over three months. That is a major deceleration from an already subdued +34,000 average monthly gain over the preceding year to land at a rate of +20,000 a month over the preceding three months. Hiring was weak across most sectors, with healthcare being the only bright spot. The fresh data could revive concerns over a soft labor market for policymakers at the Fed and favor an indefinite hold in the policy rate, although the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, reinforcing a low-hire, low fire regime.
Gold has found some momentum amid in recent days as hopes that the current macro backdrop will shift in the event of an opening of the Strait. Gold could continue to breakout if Treasury yields continue to retreat and Fed tightening expectations wane. Crude has maintained a range near $82bbl, reviving some inflation sensitivity though markets have largely welcomed the current levels as less inflationary than at previous levels during the war. Uncertainty and tensions remain high: Houthi forces say they attacked Saudi oil tankers near Yanbu in the Red Sea and in the Gulf of Aden. Iran is reportedly reviewing a bill that would bar US, Israeli, and other “hostile” vessels from Hormuz and fine violations by as much as 20% of cargo value.
Silver: September contracts are up 4.50% to $64.81.
BASE METALS
Copper: Copper prices on the LME edged lower though held above the $14,000 level as support from tight inventories outside the US and reduced supply underpin prices; COMEX prices are down 1% at $6.64. Notably, President Trump is set to host a meeting of mining executives from the world’s largest companies. LME copper hit a six-month high of $14,369.50 on Thursday after a Reuters report that the Democratic Republic of Congo had banned copper concentrate exports with immediate effect. The news reinforced existing supply worries in the market, however, Congo mostly exports copper in the form of refined metal, so the supply disruption is less disruptive than the headline appears. It exported 696,725 tons of copper cathodes in the Q1 2026, compared to 53,926 tons of concentrate containing 18,863 tons of copper metal, according to official data.
Falling inventories outside the US and hopes that US-Iran talks will open the Strait are setting up bullish conditions for the metal despite the uncertainty over the status of negotiations. LME warehouse available inventory sits at an eight-month low and below a day’s worth of global copper consumption. Low inventories levels continue to push the premium of cash prices over the three-month forward to $119 a ton. The premium of COMEX copper to LME copper continues to support coppers movement into US warehouses. COMEX warehouses sit at over 650,000 metric tons, double LME and SHFE levels combined. Strong demand for AI infrastructure buildout and supportive Q2 results from several large AI-names have also lifted sentiment and expectations that the new technology will support longer-term demand prospects. However, that leaves the market susceptible to shifts in demand and performance in the tech sector.
Zinc: Zinc eased 0.9% to $3,730.
Aluminum: Aluminum gained 0.6% to $3,279.
Tin: Tin was up 0.2% at $56,200.
Lead: Lead added 0.3% to $1,889.
Nickel: Nickel advanced 1% to $16,930.
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