Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Disappointing crop tour results combined with no progress towards peace in either the Black Sea or US/Iran conflict fueled higher trade across most of the Ag space overnight. Energy prices are higher with spot WTI crude is up $.65 a barrel at $85.60, reaching a new high for the month. Spot RBOB is up $.01 while HO is $.02 higher, establishing another new contract high. Rain activity the past 24 hours features a narrow path of heavy rain stretching from NE KS across C. MO with addition scattered showers in the Great Lakes region. Much of the Midwest will see light, scattered rain thru the end of the week with heaviest concentration in the central and ECB. Mostly dry for the N. plains while the S. plains remains hot/dry. Week 2 of the outlook features above normal temperatures with normal precip. Cooler than normal temperatures with light precipitation for NE Argentina and S. Brazil. Dry with above normal temperatures for the remainder of Argentina and Brazil. Cooler in Europe with prospects for healthy rain in S. France and Germany, likely too little too late to benefit EU corn production. The US $$ is moderately lower while holding within this weeks range. US stock indices are little changed.
Corn:
Sept-26 and Dec-26 are both up $.03 at $4.66 ¼ and $4.91 respectively in 2-sided trade. The Pro Farmer crop tour pegs NE corn yields at only 163.6 bpa vs. 179.5 YA and the 3-year Ave. of 173.3 bpa. In IN the tour forecast ave yields at 183.5 bpa, below the 193.8 from YA and 3-year Ave. of 187.4. EIA data is expected to show ethanol production slip to 327 mil. gallons last week, down from 328 the previous week, in line with the pace needed to reach the USDA corn usage forecast. This Friday’s cattle on feed report is expected to show placements down 6.2% from YA at 1.498 mil. head with total on feed inventories at 11.2 mil. up 2.5%.
Soybeans:
Sept-26 and Nov-26 beans are up $.11 ½ at $12.12 ¼ and $12.28 ¼ respectively, both holding just below yesterday’s high. Sept-26 meal is up $2.00 at $315 while Sept-26 oil is up 85 points at 70.54. Crush margins are up $.02 at $2.56 ½ bu. US Gulf FOB offers remain $.30-$.40 bu. below Brazilian offers thru the end of 2026. China continues to stack up US soybean purchases ahead of Xi visit to Washington DC in just over a month. The US balance sheet has little wiggle room for US yields to slip much from the current USDA est. of 52.7 bpa or rish sharply tighter stocks. Pod count data from the Pro Farmer crop tour as follows: IN – 1,319 pods per 3×3 foot square vs. 1,377 YA and NE at 1,220 pods vs. 1,348 YA. Tour participants found evidence of heat stress in NE and saturated fields in IN. The tour will assess fields in IL and W. IA today before meeting in Rochester, MN on Thursday where they will release their final yield and production estimates.
Wheat:
Prices are steady to lower in 2-sided trade overnight. CGO Sept-26 is unchanged at $6.64 ½, KC Sept-26 is down $.04 ½ at $7.39 ¼ while MIAX Sept-26 is down $.01 ¾ at $6.74 ½. Russian military claims to have struck 2 dry cargo ships near Ukraine’s port of Odesa and fuel tanks in the port of Chornomorsk, while Ukraine struck at least 5 grain ships near the Russian ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse. Analysts at Rusagrotrans lowered their Russian wheat export forecast in August to only 1.8 mmt, down 60% YOY and if realized would be the lowest figure for the month since 2010.
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