Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.08-$.10 higher, closing near session highs in volatile 2-sided trade. Spreads were mixed. Sept-26 futures closed above $5 for the first time in 2 ½ years. Next resistance is $5.04 ½, the Feb-25 high on the weekly chart. Dec-26 traded into new contract highs in late trade. Crop ratings fell 3% to 57% G/E, vs. expectations for a 1% drop. Overall ratings fell to a new low for the growing season, holding below the historical average. 86% of the crop is in the dough stage, 45% is dented while 6% of the crop is mature, all at or ahead of the 5-year Ave. Updated ratings suggest an average US yield of 180.1 bpa with production at 15.953 bil. bu., 60 mil. below the USDA forecast of 16.013 bil. Dec-26 closed higher 8 of the past 10 sessions with today’s high $.99 above the June low. We had MM’s buying another 17k contracts yesterday extending their long position to 321k, likely over 330k after today, the largest in 3 months. The European Union Monitoring Agricultural Resource unit (MARS) cut EU corn yield est. 5% to 6.61 mt per HA. Brazil’s 2025/26 2nd crop harvest has reached 92%, still lagging the 98% pace from YA while the 1st crop plantings for 26/27 are underway at 2% complete. Fun fact: Since 1980 December corn has never peaked in the month of October. Perhaps this is October’s year.
SOYBEANS
Higher trade across the complex with beans up $.12-$.14, meal was steady to $1 higher while bean oil was up 40-50 points. First resistance in Nov-26 beans is LW’s high at $12.44 ½ followed by its July contract high at $12.56 ½. Early weakness in soybean oil was driven by fears the EPA may provide SRE relief of up to 1.8 bil. RIN’s, above previous expectations of 1.2-1.3 bil. D4 RIN’s have traded as low as $1.92, down nearly $.60 from the July peak as the EPA is expected to issue rulings on 34 SRE exemption requests dating back to July-24. Crush margins fell another $.07 ½ to $2.19 ½ bu, a fresh 5-month low. The USDA announced a flash soybean sale of 132k mt to an unknown buyer, driving expectations for additional Chinese demand. Crop ratings fell 1% to 60% G/E, in line with expectations. Composite ratings are the lowest of the crop cycle while just below the historical average. Ratings improved in only 5 states, declined in 12 while holding steady in 1. 91% of the crop is setting pods vs. YA and 5-year Ave. of 88%. 6% of the crop is dropping leaves, in line with YA and the 5-year Ave.
WHEAT
Prices range are down $.01 to $.05 higher across the 3 classes. CGO Sept-26 was up $.04 at $6.85 ½, KC Sept-26 was $.04 higher at $7.54 ½ while spot MIAX was steady at $6.94. Spring wheat ratings slipped 1% to 51% G/E, in line with expectations. Composite ratings fell to a new crop cycle low while holding just above the 5-year Ave. 62% of the crop has been harvested, well above expectations and the 5-year Ave. of 52%. Updated ratings suggest an average yield of 48.8 bpa and production at 453 mil. down 4 mil. bu. and well below the USDA forecast of 474 mil. Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskyy insists maritime grain exports are not fully blocked and will continue to seek talks with Russian Pres. Putin to discuss their safe passage. Ukraine’s harvest is nearly complete with 5 mil. HA threshed, or 97% of the planted area. Volume has reached 24.6 mmt vs. the USDA production est. of 25.4 mmt. There is a historical tendency for US winter wheat production to move lower from August to the final USDA est. Since 2010 final WW production was below the August forecast 12 times (75%) while above it 3 times, with 1 year unchanged.
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