Written Commentary
CORN
Prices closed $.01-$.03 higher in choppy, 2-sided trade. Spreads were mixed. Both Sept-26 and Dec-26 futures carved out new contract highs. Friday’s CFTC report showed MM’s bought 126k contracts of corn extending their long position to nearly 377k contracts, the largest since April-2022. Expectations for lower EU and US production with the possibility of higher usage (including China) leaving US and global stocks much tighter than current USDA forecasts continue to fuel to price strength. Export inspections at 59 mil. bu. were above expectations while bringing YTD inspections to 3.299 bil. up 25% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of up 18%. Noted buyers were Mexico – 20 mil. while Korea took 10 mil. December corn jumped $.74 bu. in August, the biggest jump since 2011.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed in choppy 2-sided trade. Beans range from $.01 lower to $.04 higher, meal was $2-$4 lower while oil ranged from down 10 to up 15 points. Both Sept-26 and Nov-26 bean futures have backed off are trading into new contract highs overnight. Oct-26 meal and oil both held within Friday’s range. Crush margins pulled back $.08 to $2.36 ½ bu. The Trump Admin. is reportedly considering raising biofuel blending quota’s in 2027 to offset lower demand from higher SRE’s. Wire services are reporting this afternoon the EPA granted small refineries 1.76 bil. in renewable fuel credits for 2025, roughly double the amount expected this past spring. MM’s were net buyers of nearly 47k soybeans, 14k meal while selling nearly 10k soybean oil. The MM long position in soybeans at 198k contracts is a 3-month high. Additional buying Wed-Fri. likely took their long position up to 235k contracts, the largest since Oct-2020. China’s new crop purchases have reached 6.8 mmt (248 mil. bu.) with another 4.87 mmt (178 mil. bu.) to unknown. Announced flash sales, including today’s for 159k mt (5.8 mil. bu.) to an unknown buyer, take these volumes even higher. Poor US finishing weather combined with Chinese buying provide little wiggle room for US yields to slip from the current USDA forecast of 52.7 bpa. Export inspections at 9 mil. bu. were below expectations while bringing YTD inspections at 1.497 bil., down 18% from YA vs. the USDA forecast of down 20%. Mexico, Italy, and Algeria all took 1.5-2 mil. bu. with nothing to China. November futures gained $1.00 bu. in August, the largest gain for the month since 2013.
WHEAT
While prices were $.06-$.12 lower, they closed well off session lows after Russian Pres. Putin rejected Turkey’s proposed plan to allow the safe passage of agricultural products via the Black Sea, similar to the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July-22. CGO Dec-26 was down $.10 at $7.74, KC Dec-26 was off $.06 ¼ at $8.38 while Dec-26 MIAX was $.06 ¼ lower at $7.63. After buying 12k contracts, the MM short position in CGO was trimmed to 14k, through Friday’s trade however we suspect they have flipped to long 10-20k contracts. After buying 9k contracts in KC, the MM long position is out to 44k, the largest since April-22. Russia’s wheat exports in Aug-26 reached only 2 mmt, down 55.6% from YA while likely to reach only 1.8-2.2 in Sept-26, according to SovEcon. Domestic grain prices in Russia have fallen 36% since June with exports through the Black Sea and Sea of Azov being halted. SovEcon also estimates to oversupply of grain to have reached 20-25 mmt. Also weighing on prices at midday were reports Ukrainian Pres. Zelenskiy spoke with Pres. Trump and top aides discussing plans for a visit to Ukraine aimed at advancing peace efforts. Zelenskiy maintains that Sept. “could bring about a lot of changes.”
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