Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.05-$.06 lower while spreads also weakened. Dec-26 futures held support at last week’s low at $5.26 ½. The USDA announced a flash sale of 182.9k tons (7.2 mil. bu.) to Mexico. StoneX raised their US corn production forecast 47 mil. bu. to 16.207 bil. bu. with an average yield of 182.9 bpa. This is also 194 mil. bu. above the USDA forecast in August. The Reuters poll predicts US production will slip to 15.785 bil. bu., down 248 mil. from the USDA est. of 16.013 bil. The average yield is expected to fall to 178.2 bpa from 180.7 bpa in August. Ending stocks are expected to slip to 1.528 bil. vs. USDA est. of 1.653 bil. Crop ratings slipped 1% to 56% G/E. Composite ratings held at the crop cycle lows, just below the historical average. 76% of the crop is dented while 25% of the crop is mature, both ahead of the 5-year Ave. Harvest has reached 5% vs. 4% YA and 5-year Ave. of 3%. Updated ratings would suggest an average US yield of 179.1 bpa with production at 15.866 bil. bu. down 48 mil. bu. from last week. Argentine exporters expect to ship 10 mmt of corn in Aug/Sept, more than double the volume sent last year as their prices hold well below US and Brazilian FOB offers.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed with beans down $.05-$.07, meal was steady to $2 higher while oil was within a few points of unchanged. Bean and oil spreads weakened while meal spreads firmed. Nov-26 beans held within yesterday’s range. Oct-26 oil held support above its 50 and 100-day MA support between 69.50-69.65. Heavy rains across central IA the past 24 hours with many areas picking up 2+ inches. Lighter amounts in surrounding areas. Rain will continue to favor the central Midwest and ECB over the next week, slowing crop maturation and early harvest efforts. Temperatures across the WCB and central plains are significantly cooler than 24 hours ago. The USDA announced flash sales of 340k mt (12.5 mil. bu.) to China and 100k mt (3.7 mil. bu.) to unknown. StoneX is forecasting US production at 4.547 bil. bu. with an average yield of 53.0 bpa. This is up 77 mil. bu. from their Aug-26 estimate, and 28 mil. bu. above the USDA forecast. The Reuters poll predicts soybean production will slip to 4.501 bil. bu., down 18 mil. from the USDA est. The Ave. yield is expected to fall to 52.5 bpa from 52.7 bpa. Ending stocks are expected to slip to 298 mil. vs. USDA est. of 320 mil. Crop ratings held steady at 58% G/E, vs. expectations for a 1% decline. Composite ratings held at crop cycle lows while matching the historical average. 26% of the crop is dropping leaves vs. YA and 5-year Ave. of 20%. Updated ratings suggest an average US yield of 52.5 bpa with production at 4.503 bil. bu., down 12 mil. from last week. Chinese purchases of US beans have likely reached 12-13 mmt, ahead of Xi visit to Washington later this month. US Gulf FOB offers remain $.20-$.25 bu. below Brazilian offers. Higher demand leaves little wiggle room for US yields to fall from the current 52.7 bpa forecast, or risk sharply lower stocks and even higher prices.
WHEAT
Prices finished $.06-$.19 lower with CGO the downside leader. The pullback attributed to Russia still suggesting hope for a diplomatic path to ending the war with Ukraine. CGO Dec-26 was down $.18 ¼ at $7.28 3/4, falling to a 2-week low. KC Dec-26 was $.12 ¾ lower at $8.06 ¼ holding above last week’s low at $7.97 ¼. Dec-26 MIAX was off $.06 at $7.48 while holding within yesterday’s range. Ukrainian drones reportedly killed 4 at Russia’s port of Novorossiysk overnight. Latavia is considering a 300% tariff on Russian and Belarusian grain shipments that transit thru Baltic countries. A day after Saudi Arabia cancelled their tender for 535k mt of wheat, Pakistan issued a tender for 750k tons with a deadline of Sept. 16th. US spring wheat harvest advanced to 86% complete, vs. YA and the 5-year Ave. of 83%. Winter wheat plantings at 2% are below the 4% pace from YA and the 5-year Ave. of 5%.
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