Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
November Crude Oil was holding above Thursday’s lows early Friday and did not seem willing to press the downside further. Houthis said the Saudi Air Force has conducted hundreds of airstrikes in recent days, and the escalation of fighting may have offers some support after the market saw some pressure on Thursday from news that that Saudi Arabia has upped its sales from the Persian Gulf via ship-to-ship transfer and delivery to a port in Oman (outside the strait), helping to offset some of the reduction exports that came with the attack on the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea last week. The war will come up for discussion at the United Nations General Assembly next week, and an Iranian delegation will be able to attend.
PRODUCTS
November RBOB was lower early Friday but inside Thursday’s range, and November USLD managed to tick higher and likewise was inside its range from Thursday. Both markets have held near contract highs this week, resisting the pull from lower crude prices. The EIA stocks report this week was bearish, with gasoline stocks showing a modest increase as opposed to a decline and distillates stocks increasing more than expected, but the overall supply levels remain the lowest in at least five years for this point in the season.
NATURAL GAS
November Natural Gas continues to chop around inside the trading range it has observed for the past two months. A warmer than normal trend has kept cooling demand at elevated levels late into the season, but as time passed this will have a bearish influence if it means heating season will be postponed. Yesterday’s EIA Storage report was bullish against expectations.
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