ADMIS News
COTTON
December Cotton extended its recent rally early Tuesday and reached its highest level since September 29. The selling pressure from an overextend long position by the funds has faded, as Friday’s data showed the funds had liquidated a significant portion (30%) of their longs as of last Tuesday. The weekly Crop Progress report released late Monday showed a slight decline in crop conditions last week, with 33% of the US cotton crop rated good/excellent as of October 4 versus 35% the previous week. There is no data for last year because of the government shutdown, but the average for the previous four years is 38%.
COCOA
December Cocoa was slightly lower early Tuesday but in the vicinity of Monday’s 2 ½-week high. Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals were estimated at 18,000 metric tons for the week ending October 4, bringing the total for the marketing year so far to 54,500. Ivory Coast normally begins their marketing year on October 1, but this year they started on September 1 so shippers could get used to the new reporting protocol to meet EU anti-deforestation rules. Not surprisingly, deliveries have started out slow, but they are expected to pick up in mid-October. Ivory Coast farmers interviews by Reuters expressed concern that poor rainfall risked bringing the September-to-February main crop to an early end, saying that rains were below average last week and that more were needed to ensure an abundant main crop. If rains are delayed until mid-October, they said it could jeopardize the development of many of the young pods expected to be harvested next year and weigh on the final size of the main crop.
COFFEE
December Coffee was slightly higher early Tuesday but inside Monday’s range. The Brazilian real was sharply higher on Monday, which lent additional support to coffee prices because the stronger currency lowers the incentive for exporters to price their product. The coffee analysis firm Hedgepoint projected global coffee production for 2026/27 at 190 million bags with demand at 181 million, saying this represents the first significant global surplus in more than five seasons. The projected global arabica production at 104.4 million bags, up 8.9% from the previous season and 6.7% above the 10-year average, with Brazilian production expected to reach 50 million bags. Global robusta production is estimated at 83.5 million bags, slightly below 2025/26. Vietnam exported 1.45 million metric tons of coffee in the first nine months of 2026, up 16.2% from 2025.
SUGAR
November Sugar extended its rally early Tuesday and reached another new contract high, while the nearby contract reached its highest level since February 2025. The market continues to find support from concerns about lower production in Europe, India and perhaps Thailand due a lack of rain and in Brazil because of too much rain. Last week, Brazilian Ag Ministry data indicated that center south production for the first half of September was 41.6% below year ago levels. Datagro said recently that mills are struggling to maintain harvest operations at normal levels because of the rains. The rains also interrupt port loadings because the berths are not covered, and rain would damage the sugar.
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