ADMIS News
COCOA
Ivory Coast’s National Meteorology Directorate warned that El Nino could cut Ivory Coast’s 2026/27 cocoa production by 21%-25%, saying that annual rainfall could decline by 10%-27%. This has been on traders’ minds since the Super El Nino was forecast last spring. In June, Ivory Coast temporarily halted sales of export contracts for its 2026/27 main crop after selling about 1.15 million metric tons. Estimates for the 2025/26 crop vary, but estimated Ivory Coast port arrivals totaled 2 million tons. The arrivals pace this year points to a lower crop, with cumulative arrivals as of Sunday estimated at 264,500 tons versus 411,000 at this point last year. The ample current supply situation is evident in exchange stocks, which have reached their highest level in more than two years. ICE stocks increased by 3,575 bags on Wednesday to 3,751,671 million, one bag higher than last Friday, when they reached their highest level since May 20, 2024.
COFFEE
March Coffee was higher early Thursday after falling below the September low for a time on Wednesday. A report from industry group Cecafe that Brazil exported 5.02 million bags of green coffee in October, up almost 31% from the same month last year and the highest on record did not surprise, as it more or less confirmed official government data from last week. Cecafe put arabica exports at 4.12 million bags, up 22% from last year, and robusta shipments at 897,000 bags, about double. The amount has increased since September after delays from heavy rainfall earlier in the season. The Brazilian real continues to drift back towards the October 26 spike low, which could encourage more sales on the part of Brazilian producers, roasters and exporters. ICE stocks are on the increase again after flirting with 26-year lows last week. Stocks increased 8,873 bags on Wednesday to 250,241, their highest since October 9. The amount pending review increased another 8,668 bags to 113,038, the highest since March 19. All pending stocks are from Brazil
COTTON
March Cotton has been in a sideways pattern over the past week so since bouncing off the 200-day moving average last week. The support from a couple of weeks of decent export sales is being undermined by a rally I the US dollar this week. The Dollar Index extended this week’s rally early Thursday and reached its highest level since April after a hot CPI number earlier this week inspired more hawkish talk from Fed officials, which dampens US export prospects. The USDA supply/demand report was viewed as mostly neutral, as it did not offer many changes from the October update. The weekly export sales report will be released on Friday due to the Veterans Day holiday yesterday.
SUGAR
March Sugar was back below 18 cents early Thursday following a one-day rally. The Brazilian real continued to drift back towards the spike low from October, which could encourage more exports from Brazil, if they have more to sell. Brazilian output is down this year after heavy rains slowed harvest and high energy prices encouraged cane crushers to focus more on ethanol. As of October 16, sugar production was down 14% from a year ago. However, this has been known for some time. The steep selloff in crude oil since the end of October has also pressure sugar in recent weeks. India’s cane harvest got off to a strong start because they started early, but this does not mean the strong pace will last. The fund net long has eased off the record levels but it was still formidable as of last Friday’s COT report, which leaves the threat of heavy selling if support areas are taken out. If crude oil resumes its downtrend, that may be the spark.
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