Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
January Crude Oil was slightly higher early Thursday, continuing its back and forth as it weighs reports of stronger Mideast output and the peace discussions in Ukraine and Middle East against ongoing attacks against shipping and oil facilities. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard said two oil supertankers were disabled by explosions after hitting mines in the Strait of Hormuz Wednesday night. Data from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy indicates that at least 10 ships were hit in the first 10 days of November, after 37 attacks in October. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators agreed to a major prisoner exchange after two days of peace talks in Abu Dhabi that ended on Wednesday, but they said differences remained on other major issues, including territorial questions.
PRODUCTS
The tanker of Russian diesel off the Eastern Seaboard is having difficulty finding a home, as questions remain on whether President Trump’s waiver on sanctions preventing the import of Russian oil is legal.
NATURAL GAS
January Natural Gas was higher early Thursday but was short of Wednesday’s three-week high. A drop in US production, increased offloading for LNG exports, and the arrival of more seasonal weather has supported the move off the October lows. LSEG said Wednesday that average gas output in the US Lower 48 states has fallen to 112.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, down from 113.4 bcfd in October. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast show above normal temperatures likely across most of the lower 48 out through November 25, but regardless, as the season advances heating demand will increase.
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