Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
One could suggest that the weekly EIA data was almost exclusively bearish yesterday, but in the end the crude oil market has discounted the readings and prices appear to be poised to breakout to the upside. In fact, with very large builds in all major inventory readings and an extremely unusual second largest ever 15-million-barrel single weekly inflow to crude oil stocks, one would have expected prices to have declined sharply yesterday.
NATURAL GAS
While natural gas prices did manage to make a 3-day high yesterday, we see very little from the fundamental or technical conditions to suggest a solid low has been forged and the downward bias will be thrown off. Certainly, a surprise “triple-digit” draw in weekly gas inventories later today could serve to provide fundamental support under prices, but the US temperature forecast remains patently bearish and it might be difficult to noticeably tighten gas inventories until much colder weather next month.
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