Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SK is down 30 cents and near 16.23. Overnight high was 16.70. Thursdays high was 17.59. SMK is near 448.8. BOK is near 70.42. CK is down 13 cents and near 6.76. Overnight high was 7.01. WK is down 37 cents and near 8.97. Overnight high was 9.60. KWK is down 32 cents and near 9.33. Overnight high was near 9.81. MWK is down 27 cents and near 9.92. Overnight high was 10.25.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is mixed. Crude is mixed and near $91. Gold, silver, sugar and cotton are lower. Copper, coffee and cocoa are higher. Dalian soybean, corn, palmoil and soyoil prices were higher. Soymeal were lower. TGIF.
Russia troops are near Ukraine capital. Some speculate once they control Ukraine they will resume grain exports. Combined, Russia and new Ukraine would control 40 mmt or 20 pct World corn trade and 60 mmt or 30 pct of World wheat trade.
Soybeans turned lower on talk of better South America weather, lack of new China buying old crop soybean and fact USDA continues not to add to US demand. Since November, USDA has dropped South America crop 20 mmt or 735 mil bu and has increased US exports only 10 mil bu. China soybean crush and feed margins are negative and they are selling soybeans from reserves. There is 11.9 mmt of vessels waiting to load Brazil soybeans with wait time near 40 days. Argentina est soybean crop 42 mmt vs USDA 45.
Corn futures have also turned lower. Some may be taking profits before the weekend. Weekly US export sales are estimated near 500-900 mt vs 820 last week. Combined, Russia and new Ukraine would control 40 mmt or 20 pct World corn trade. Russia has assured China that China will get the needed corn from Ukraine. Ukraine halted port activity. Russia blocked Azov Sea. USDA made no changes to US 2022/23 corn supply and demand which was bearish.
Wheat futures have also turned lower. Wheat volatility continues. Weekly US export sales are estimated near 100-450 mt vs 118 last week. Combined, Russia and new Ukraine would control 60 mmt or 30 pct World wheat trade. Ukraine halted port activity. Russia blocked Azov Sea. USDA increased US 2022/23 wheat carryout 95 mil bu from their initial baseline estimate which was bearish. The 2022/23 wheat carryout is 83 mil bu higher than 2021/22. US south plains weather forecast is warm and dry.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
