A Mixed Start to Grain Prices
Grains are mixed. SX is up 4 cents and near 13.68. Range 13.60-13.78. SMZ is near 360.8. BOZ is near 63.26. CZ is down 1 cent and near 5.72. Range 5.68-5.74. WZ is near 7.83. KWZ is near 7.61. MWZ is near 9.37.
US stocks are lower. China data suggest slower economy. Waiting US Fed comments. US Dollar is slightly lower. Crude is lower. Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour this week.
Nearby soybean futures could be in a 13.30 to 14.18 range. Prices may not be able to rally into US harvest but USDA crop number was friendly to prices. Fact Brazil may be sold out of export soybeans until 2022 harvest is also supportive. NOPA US July soybean crush is est near 159 mil bu vs 173 last year. Soyoil stocks could be near 1,505 mil lbs and lowest in 9 months. Trade est US 21/22 carryout 125 vs USDA 155
USDA dropped US 2021 corn yield more than expected but also dropped exports. Bears feel a 21/22 corn carryout at 1,242 mil bu is adequate going into harvest. Bulls feel USDA may be too low in 21/22 exports by 300-400 mil bu. CZ may be in a broad range between 5.50 and 5.90. Trade est US 21/22 carryout 1,000 vs USDA 1,242.
The big surprise in the USDA August report was the steep drop in Russia wheat crop. WZ may be in a 7.60-7.85 range. KZ could be in a 7.40 to 7.70 range. Some feel Dec-Feb prices could trade over 8.00 due to drop in World export supplies. MWZ could be in a range between 9.00 and 10.00. Friday’s high was 9.53. Trade est US 21/22 carryout 550 vs USDA 627. US 2022 crop 1,925. Carryout 430.
On USDA Friday, Managed funds were net buyers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 10,000 soybeans, 1,000 soymeal, 6,000 soyoil and sold 1,000 corn. We estimate Managed Money net long 40,000 SRW Wheat; long 276,000 Corn; net long 105,000 Soybeans; net long 26,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 69,000 lots of soyoil.
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