Written Commentary
London Wheat Report
Source: FutureSource
The grain markets were very much on the slide today with red across the board in the London, US and French markets. Chicago corn, wheat and soybean futures eased on Thursday as fair weather helped the U.S. harvest, while the dollar strengthened as investors remained wary of an economic downturn. The 5-year Communist Party Congress will begin in less than 10 days with President Xi expected to get an unprecedented 3rd term.
Soybeans today took a tumble hitting a two month low on news that favourable weather arriving allowed a promising start to Brazil’s 2022/2023 soybean season, reports show farmers are poised to reap a record 150.62 million tonnes. According to the average of 12 analysts polled by Reuters, “expectations of a bumper crop are being driven by a record large planted area of 42.83 million hectares (105.8 million acres), which farmers are planting now. If the average of forecasts is confirmed, Brazilian soybean production will exceed last season’s by 25 million tonnes, when a drought in the southern farms of the country spoiled part of the crop’’.
Weekly US export sales were 28 mil bu. Season to date exports are 67 mil by vs 67 last year. Total commit is near 1,010 vs 925 ly. USDA goal is 2,050 with some estimates near 1,900. Informa estimated US 2022 soybean crop at 4,327 mil bu vs USDA 4,378. USDA report is Oct 12. Some were looking for a crop near 4,425.
Wheat news largely focused on the tender coming from Japan who’s ministry of Ags, Forestry and fisheries bought a total of 97,343 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in regular tenders that closed on Thursday. Rains in the southern U.S. Plains were also expected to aid recently sown winter wheat, though conditions remained parched in much of the U.S. wheat belt. Most will be keeping an eye on next weeks USDA October Crop forecast after a dry summer could affect harvest yields. Ukraine’s 2023 early harvest could reportedly drop by at least 50%. The pace of sowing winter wheat in Ukraine for the 2023 harvest is three times lower than last year, according to data provided by the agriculture ministry this week. Farms have sown 1.1 million hectares of winter wheat as of Oct. 3, or 27% of the expected area, compared with 3.1 million hectares sown at the same date in 2021, the data showed. Weekly US export sales were 8 mil bu. Season to date exports are 285 mil byvs 285last year. Total commit is near 401 vs 419 ly. USDA goal is 825. Informa estimated US 2022 wheat crop at 1,650 mil bu. Russia wheat export prices remain lowest to buyers. Trade watching Russia reaction as Ukraine takes back portions of Ukraine territory recently annexed by Russia.
French and London Wheat followed their companion across the pond trading down all day! Not even the headline of “Ukraine shipments slowing due to rising inspection delays’’ could offer a bullish sentiment today. There was talk that Russia may extend the Ukraine export corridor deal, with 64 vessels either in Ukraine or on the way to load grain. This weighed on global Corn and wheat prices.
Corn weekly US export sales were 9 mil bu. Season to date exports are 88 mil by vs 98 last year. Total commit is near 520 vs 1,046 ly. USDA goal is 2,000. Informa estimated US 2022 corn crop at 13,839 mil bu vs USDA 13,944.
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Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
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