Written Commentary
London Wheat Report
About 4% of winter cereals in Russia are in “poor and sparse” condition, the Russian Grain Union said on Monday, compared to a typical rate of 6% at this stage of the season. The overall state of the crop is not a cause for concern, the association said. Its head, Arkady Zlochevsky, said grain exports in the current 2023/24 season could reach 70 million tons if the Russian government increases the quota by 4 million tonnes.
Canadian farmers will plant 3% less canola and the same area of wheat as last year, government agency Statistics Canada reported on Monday. Unsurprisingly this lent support to Canola today, trading up double figures at the time of writing.
Brazil’s soybean harvest for the 2023/24 cycle had reached 55% of the planted area as of last Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday. The pace of harvesting slowed down, growing 7 percentage points from the previous week, as the harvest is now more concentrated in areas that were planted late. The figure was also above the 53% seen at the same time a year earlier.
Russian wheat export prices fell last week on continuing high supply in the world market, but analysts forecast significant growth in shipments from Russia in March. The price of 12.5% protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in April was $198 a metric ton, down $5 from the previous week.
USDA said ‘China cancels 264,000 tons of SRW Wheat in 2023-24’. This is the third cancellation in the past week. Cumulative cancellations to China since last Thurs. is now nearly 19 mil. bu. reducing total outstanding sales to 30 mil. of SRW.
Global wheat markets had a turnaround in today’s trading. The morning saw the screen trading red but the markets all turned round to post large gains on the close, or at the time of writing. Chicago wheat was trading into double digit gains, Minap and Kansas also posting single digit gains. Matif was well supported across the curve and London saw its largest gains in some time. Nothing we could see was to blame for the moves, perhaps ‘’short covering’’ will be to blame.
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