Written Commentary
London Wheat Report
The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday forecast a record global grain crop in the 2024/25 season, reinforcing concerns about a global glut. The inter-governmental body, issuing its first full set of supply and demand projections for the 2024/25 season, saw global grains production rising to a record 2.332 billion metric tons from the prior season’s 2.304 billion. Global grains consumption was seen rising to 2.331 billion from the prior season’s 2.306 billion, while stocks at the end of the season were seen at 601 million tons, up from 599 million a year earlier.
Germany’s 2024 wheat crop will fall 6.5% on the year to 20.14 million metric tons, the country’s association of farm cooperatives said in its first harvest estimate on Thursday. The association forecast Germany’s 2024 winter rapeseed crop will fall 6.9% from last year’s crop to 3.93 million tons. The main reasons for the expected fall are reduced planted areas following unfavourably rainy autumn weather and increased competition for land from other uses such as building housing and expanding renewable energy production including solar power panels.
Russia’s IKAR agricultural consultancy said that it expects Russia’s 2024/25 grain crop to be 147 million metric tons, of which 93 million tons would be wheat, Russian news agency Interfax reported on Thursday. The figures are up from 2023/24 when the grain harvest was forecast at 144 million metric tons in 2023/24, of which 91.6 million tons will be wheat. IKAR put the country’s grain exports for that year at 50 million metric tons, down from its expected 2023/24 exports of 67 million tons of grain.
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