Written Commentary
London Wheat Report
The theme continues this week with yet another day of sluggish volumes through all traded London wheat futures contracts. This perhaps indicates that the underlying market is somewhat preoccupied with combines rolling through fields across the country, resulting in farmers focusing on getting it into the shed rather than selling the grain out of it. Matif wheat also saw a slower day, trading around half the amount usually seen across screens.
In France, the farm office FranceAgriMer today released a forecast indicating that stocks of the main French wheat crop will swell to a 21-year high in 2025/26 as a rebound in production outweighs an expected doubling in exports outside the EU. France’s wheat harvest is reportedly progressing well, especially when compared to last year’s dismal effort. There are some that are cautious about French export prospects given stiff competition from global wheat producers and ongoing diplomatic tensions with major importer Algeria. FranceAgriMer projected soft wheat stocks at 3.87 million tonnes, up 66% compared with 2024/25 and the highest level since 2004/05.
From the other side of the world, it has been reported that Canberra is close to an agreement with Beijing that would allow Australian suppliers to ship five trial canola cargoes to China. China, the world’s largest canola importer, sources nearly all of its imports from Canada, but those supplies could be limited by an anti-dumping probe Beijing is conducting, thus leading Beijing to scour the globe for a replacement. It stands to be a potentially highly lucrative deal for the Aussies, as China has bought an average of 4 mmt of canola, worth over USD 2 billion, each year for the last five years.
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