Written Commentary
London Wheat Report
A day of somewhat higher volumes today, once again, both May-25 and Nov-25 trading down into the red. Old crop was most under pressure, settling at £170.20. This downward price movement was mirrored in the Paris wheat contracts, with all but the Dec-26 contracts ending the day in red.
Plenty of bearish news permeating through today:
- The U.S. and Russian officials held talks in Saudi Arabia earlier today aimed at sealing a Black Sea maritime ceasefire deal before a wider ceasefire agreement. Although the area has not been the epicentre of recent attacks, flow has been reduced since the start of the war. The aim of the Saudi talks is to reach a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, allowing complete free flow of shipping.
- In the same area, Russia’s IKAR consultancy has raised its baseline 2025 wheat crop forecast to 82.5 mmt from 81.0 mmt previously. Based on the announcement, it was said that an improved situation for winter crops in some grain-producing regions was the main factor behind the increase.
- Finally, on the bullish side of events: The Brazilian 2024/25 soy crop forecast has been cut by AgRural. The agency stated that a drought in southern Brazil, impacting mainly Rio Grande do Sul state, has affected the supply outlook in the country. Brazilian farmers, who have harvested the majority of their soybean fields across the country, are set to produce 165.9 mmt in the 2024/25 season, 2.3 mmt less than had been previously forecast.
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