ADMISI London Wheat Report for 25 March

As mentioned yesterday, but has now become official today. Russia and Ukraine have agreed to ensure safe passage for commercial shipping and stop military strikes in the Black Sea. With the help of the US Gov. there will be a ‘’restoration of Russia’s Ags product exports.’’ The White House statement went on to say the following.

• The US and Ukraine has agreed to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea.
• The two countries remain committed to helping achieve the exchange of prisoners of war, release of civilian detainees and return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children.
• Kyiv and Washington agreed to develop measures for implementing a ban on strikes against energy facilities in Russia and Ukraine.
• The US and Ukraine will continue working towards a “durable and lasting peace”, and welcome third countries to support the implementation of maritime and energy agreements.

The Ukrainian Defence Ministry has released its own statement on the deal, which largely follows the same wording as the White House. It also adds that the movement of Russian warships outside of the “eastern part of the Black Sea” will be treated as a violation of the agreement and a “threat to the national security of Ukraine”.

Russia’s response came shortly after It says the agreement will only come into force after sanctions are lifted from Russian banks involved in international trade in food and fertilisers, and they are fully reconnected to Swift – a network that facilitates secure financial messaging between banks. This means Russia is effectively saying sanctions must be lifted from its banks, food producers and exporters, as well as insurers involved in food exports, before a ceasefire in the Black Sea comes into effect.

The market was in the red today but dropped a further Euro after all three statements had been released. Sovicon did their best to try and drive the market up by releasing that it had downgraded its Russian wheat export forecast for the 2024/2025 season to 40.7 million metric tons from 42.2 million.

Winter crops in the European Union had a promising start to 2025, but more rainfall will be required in the east to maintain a yield potential currently seen above both last year and the five-year average, crop monitoring service MARS said on Monday. In its first projections for this year’s harvest, MARS pegged the 2025 soft wheat yield in the bloc at 6.00 metric tons per hectare (t/ha) this year, up 8% from 2024 and 4% above the five-year average.