Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. Soybeans, corn and wheat may have found long liquidation and hedge selling near Tuesdays highs. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower and lowest since July, 2023. China Yuan is near 16 month high.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans are lower. Talk of possible rains in dry N Brazil in 10-15 day and increase hedge selling is offering resistance. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were lower. Dalian soyoil and palmoil futures were higher and near 6 month high. Soyoil pct of crush up to 40 pct. World vegoil prices are higher. One group is trying to pass a bill ensuring US biofuel feedstock made from domestic US source with 45 pct tax credit. Most feel is may not pass in 2024 but could pass in Q1, 2025. Brazil soybean prices are +20 cents vs US. China may have bought 12-16 US soybean cargoes earlier this week. China soybean import buying could slow next week due to Golden week holiday. Matif rapeseed and sunoil prices higher on lower imports and lower EU crops. One group were net sellers of US cash soybean yesterday near 10.84 SH and 2025 crop at 10.90 SX25. Trade est US Sep 1 soybean stocks at 351 mil bu vs USDA 340. Range was 323-443.
CORN
Corn futures are lower. There was talk of increase hedge selling near Tuesdays high. Failure to trade over 4.15 CZ was technically negative. US west Midwest weather should be favorable for Harvest. Tropical storm could dump rain in Delta, SE and south east Midwest slowing harvest there. Dalian corn futures traded higher. Brazil corn futures remain high due to dry weather, Rains are forecast day 10-15. Brazil corn exports are down 10-11 mmt vs last year to date. Interesting to note that for every week delay in Brazil soybean plantings could delay 2nd crop corn plantings. Some est that for every week delay in Brazil corn plantings, crop potentially could be down 10 pct or 10 mmt. Trade est US Sep 1 corn stocks at 1,844 mil bu vs USDA 1,812. Range was 1,655-2,017.
WHEAT
Wheat futures also unchanged to lower. This despite lower US Dollar. Season to date US wheat export are above last year, Argentina and Australia dropped their wheat crop est. EU crop is also est lower than previous est. Lower EU crop and Southern hemisphere crop could be supportive. Key is Russia export price which seems to be firming but Russia continues to offer lowest export price to buyers. Canada Vancouver dock strike did help MLS wheat spread but overnight spread is back widening, Trade est US Sep 1 wheat stocks at 1,973 mil bu vs 1,767 ly. Range was 1,794-2,040. Trade est US 2024 wheat crop at 1,966 mil bu vs USDA 1,982 and 1,812 last year.
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