Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
Soybeans traded lower. SX traded below 13.00, BOZ traded below 59 cents and soymeal 350. Most of the selling was linked in part to concern about delays in US gulf exports due to loss of power due to Hurricane IDA. There were reports that power may not be restored in parts of New Orleans for 3 weeks. There was also talk that some open and unshipped soybean sales may have been switched to Houston. USDA left US 2021 soybean crop ratings near 56 pct G/E vs 63 last year. Crops improved in IL, LA and TN but dropped in AR, IN, IA, MO,OH and SD. Best crops remain in LA, MS, TN and WI. Lowest rated crops are in MN, SD and ND. IA and MO ratings are also below average. There remains a debate about final US soybean yield. Some feel fact Sep 1 ratings are below Aug 1 suggest soybean yield could be below 50. Others feel recent Midwest rains and new field data could suggest a higher yield.
CORN
Corn futures traded lower on concern about a slowdown in US gulf exports due to loss of power at gulf export terminals. CZ ended near 5.34. Range was 5.25 to 5.45. World buyers need to buy US corn. Like Katrina, once elevators reopen, exports increased. Some feel end users should take advantage of this price break to secure 21/22 needs from US. Managed funds were net sellers of 9,000 corn contracts. There were no Sep corn contract deliveries. USDA left US 2021 corn crop ratings near 60 pct G/E vs 62 last year. Crops improved in IL, MN and WI but dropped in IN, MI, OH and SD. Best crops remain in KY, OH and WI. Lowest rated crops are in MN, SD and ND. IA ratings are also below average. There remains a debate about final US corn yield. Some feel fact Sep 1 ratings are below Aug 1 suggest corn yield could be below 174. Others feel new field data could suggest a higher yield. Another key to corn prices will be US 21/22 corn exports. Some estimate US 21/22 corn exports near 2,750 mil bu vs USDA estimate of 2,400. This could suggest US 21/22 corn carryout near 1,000 mil bu vs USDA 1,242.
WHEAT
Wheat futures ended lower. Lower corn and soybean prices weighed on wheat futures and limited new buying. WZ ended near 7.22 with range 7.07 to 7.25. KWZ ended near 7.14 with range 6.99 to 7.16. MWZ ended near 9.03 with range 8.94 to 9.09. EU and Black Sea wheat prices have not followed lower US futures. Fact this week, Canada dropped their Wheat crop to 22.9 mmt vs 35.2 and exports may be only 15 mmt vs 27.5 last year offers support to World prices. US spring wheat harvest is near 88 pct done vs 71 average. Crop is also smaller than last year with high protein wheat values gaining on winter wheat values. There is also talk that Russia wheat crop is also lower. USDA lowered Russia crop to 72.5 mmt vs 85.0 estimated in July and 85.3 last year. Managed funds were net sellers of 3,000 wheat and are estimated to be long only 3,000. Chicago wheat deliveries were 1,000 and more than expected.
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