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Ag Market View for Apr 19

Soybeans, soymeal and corn traded higher. Soyoil and wheat were lower. US stocks were lower. US Dollar was lower. Crude managed small gains today.


Soybean rallied on strong US domestic basis. Higher China soymeal prices offered support to soymeal. Managed funds were net buyers of soybeans linked to dry and cold weather across west Europe, dry weather across Canada prairies and wet Argentina weather. Weekly US soybean exports were near 6 mil nu vs 20 last year. Season to date exports are near 2,020 mil bu vs 1,206 last year. USDA goal is 2,280 mil bu vs 1,682 last year. US exports are running 814 mil bu ahead of last year. USDA est an increase of 548. Some feel final US total soybean demand could be 50-75 mil bu higher than USDA guess but USDA may consider a carryout of 120 minimum pipeline. World climate summit this week could result in higher US green fuel which could increase soyoil biofuel use. For the second day, Trade est US soybean planting near 3 pct.


Corn futures traded higher. CK is back near contract highs. CZ made new highs. Some feel less than ideal US spring weather could add 50-75 cents to CZ. Managed funds increased their net long due to increase dryness across Brazil corn areas and concern about cold and dry weather across US north plains and west Europe. Dalian corn futures continue to trend higher. Brazil domestic corn prices are record high. Weekly US corn exports were near 60 mil bu vs 28 last year. Season to date exports are near 1,545 mil bu vs 840 last year. USDA goal is 2,675 vs 1,778 last year. Exports are running 705 mil bu above last year. USDA goal is an increase of 897. Some feel final exports could be closer to 2,900. USDA continues to refrain from increasing exports due to slow China exports. USDA feels China will roll 235 mil bu of open corn sales to new crop. Commercials feel China will take the corn. Corn futures are not yet trading higher US domestic basis or US summer weather. World climate summit this week could result in higher US green fuel which could increase corn biofuel use. Trade est US corn planting near 9 pct vs 4 last week. Weekly US sorghum exports were 12 mil bu. Season to date is near 204 mil vs 85 ly.


Wheat traded mixed with WK and MWK trading slightly lower while KC traded slightly higher. Wheat futures continues to follow corn. Slow global wheat trade continues to offer resistance to futures near key resistance. Dry weather across West Europe and US north plains and Canada prairies and cold US winter wheat temps offers support with weather the key and change to the better could offer resistance. Just like continued weather concerns could push prices higher. Weekly US wheat exports were near 22 mil bu vs 18 ly. Season to date exports are 809 vs 808 last year. Exports are running near last year while USDA estimates final export to increase 20 mil bu over last year. Trade est US winter wheat 52 pct good/ex vs 53 last week. Trade also estimates US spring wheat plantings near 17 pct vs 11 last week.

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